Happy Valley · 2022-02-16 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SO AWESOME, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with LUCKY QUALITY second and HEAVENLY THOUGHT third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SO AWESOME B/TT 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY QUALITY V1 K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 1 | 6.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT V-/B2 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 7 | 23.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SPONTANEOUS B/TT- K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 5.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | NATURAL GOLD SR/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | AQUILA B/XB V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 2 | 6.8 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | CASA LEGEND CP1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 5 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | SHINY TWO V/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 10 | 33.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | AMBITIOUS HEART TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 8 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 6 | 8.1 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | GRACYLOVE Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 9.9 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | VICTORY MORE B/H/TT1 M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 11 | 86.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SO AWESOME | 21.5% | 4.65 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER | 13.7% | 7.31 | 10 |
| 3 | 5 | LUCKY QUALITY | 12.2% | 8.17 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | GRACYLOVE | 11.2% | 8.90 | 11 |
| 5 | 11 | AQUILA | 10.4% | 9.66 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | SPONTANEOUS | 7.5% | 13.38 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | CASA LEGEND | 6.7% | 14.91 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | NATURAL GOLD | 5.9% | 17.03 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 5.8% | 17.29 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | SHINY TWO | 2.4% | 42.26 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 1.7% | 59.85 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | VICTORY MORE | 1.1% | 91.94 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 35
PLACE
5 19
6 80.5
7 16.5
QUINELLA
5,7 121.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 290.5
5,7 46
6,7 226
FORECAST
7,5 268
TIERCE
7,5,6 4,965
TRIO
5,6,7 1,341
FIRST 4
2,5,6,7 1,318
QUARTET
7,5,6,2 31,123
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/5 48.5
3/7 203
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 18