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Happy Valley · 2022-02-16 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SO AWESOME, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with LUCKY QUALITY second and HEAVENLY THOUGHT third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SO AWESOME B/TT 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 4 3.5 1/2
2 5 LUCKY QUALITY V1 K H Chan · C Fownes 1 6.3 1/2
3 6 HEAVENLY THOUGHT V-/B2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 7 23.0 2-1/4
4 2 SPONTANEOUS B/TT- K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 3 5.7 2-3/4
5 9 NATURAL GOLD SR/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 20.0 3
6 11 AQUILA B/XB V Borges · A T Millard 2 6.8 4
7 4 CASA LEGEND CP1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 5 20.0 5
8 10 SHINY TWO V/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 10 33.0 5-3/4
9 8 AMBITIOUS HEART TT K C Leung · T P Yung 8 25.0 5-3/4
10 3 WIND SPEEDER C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 6 8.1 9-1/4
11 1 GRACYLOVE Z Purton · D J Hall 12 9.9 12-1/4
12 12 VICTORY MORE B/H/TT1 M L Yeung · K W Lui 11 86.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO AWESOME2. LUCKY QUALITY+0.5L3. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+2.25L4. SPONTANEOUS+2.75L5. NATURAL GOLD+3L6. AQUILA+4L7. CASA LEGEND+5L8. SHINY TWO+5.75L9. AMBITIOUS HEART+5.75L10. WIND SPEEDER+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SO AWESOME (21.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SO AWESOME 21.5% 4.65 1
2 3 WIND SPEEDER 13.7% 7.31 10
3 5 LUCKY QUALITY 12.2% 8.17 2
4 1 GRACYLOVE 11.2% 8.90 11
5 11 AQUILA 10.4% 9.66 6
6 2 SPONTANEOUS 7.5% 13.38 4
7 4 CASA LEGEND 6.7% 14.91 7
8 9 NATURAL GOLD 5.9% 17.03 5
9 8 AMBITIOUS HEART 5.8% 17.29 9
10 10 SHINY TWO 2.4% 42.26 8
11 6 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 1.7% 59.85 3
12 12 VICTORY MORE 1.1% 91.94 12
SO AWESOME — wonWIND SPEEDERLUCKY QUALITYGRACYLOVEAQUILASPONTANEOUSCASA LEGENDNATURAL GOLDAMBITIOUS HEARTSHINY TWOHEAVENLY THOUGHTVICTORY MORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 35

PLACE

5 19

6 80.5

7 16.5

QUINELLA

5,7 121.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 290.5

5,7 46

6,7 226

FORECAST

7,5 268

TIERCE

7,5,6 4,965

TRIO

5,6,7 1,341

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 1,318

QUARTET

7,5,6,2 31,123

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/5 48.5

3/7 203

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 18