Happy Valley · 2022-02-16 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE RUNNER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by NOSE, with SKY FOREVER second and YO BEAUTY third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THE RUNNER V 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 9 | 3.3 | NOSE |
| 2 | 9 | SKY FOREVER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 7.8 | NOSE |
| 3 | 8 | YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 8 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.7 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | NAMJONG SINGS B K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 3 | 5.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | LET'S DO IT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 7.1 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | RISING FROM ASHES H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 35.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SIMPLY FLUKE B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | ROYAL BOMB CP1/TT D Moor · C Fownes | D Moor | C Fownes | 10 | 46.0 | 3-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THE RUNNER | 20.8% | 4.80 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | LET'S DO IT | 19.2% | 5.21 | 6 |
| 3 | 5 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT | 19.1% | 5.23 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | NAMJONG SINGS | 12.8% | 7.81 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 7.2% | 13.93 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | SKY FOREVER | 5.3% | 18.90 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | WILD WEST WING | 5.2% | 19.11 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | ROYAL BOMB | 5.0% | 20.20 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | YO BEAUTY | 4.5% | 22.31 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | RISING FROM ASHES | 0.9% | 114.75 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 33
PLACE
1 13
8 37
9 26.5
QUINELLA
1,9 176
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 74
1,9 69.5
8,9 136.5
FORECAST
1,9 271
TIERCE
1,9,8 2,935
TRIO
1,8,9 559
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 549
QUARTET
1,9,8,5 12,898
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19.5
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 148
7/9 60