Happy Valley · 2022-02-16 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course C 9 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-16 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with VINCY second and BLASTOISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite EXCEPTIONAL NICE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 2.16.81

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT 2.16.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard	R Maia	A T Millard	9	126 lb	6.7	1-1/4
2	9	VINCY Closed strongly B-/SR2/TT H Bentley · C H Yip	H Bentley	C H Yip	6	118 lb	10.0	1-1/4
3	8	BLASTOISE L Ferraris · A T Millard	L Ferraris	A T Millard	5	118 lb	10.0	1-3/4
4	4	EXCEPTIONAL NICE Led early E/TT1 Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	7	122 lb	2.1	2-1/4
5	6	GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly B/XB D Moor · D J Whyte	D Moor	D J Whyte	1	119 lb	20.0	2-1/2
6	7	NORDIC SKY SR/XB K C Leung · A T Millard	K C Leung	A T Millard	3	119 lb	5.6	3-1/4
7	1	S J TOURBILLON B- L Hewitson · P F Yiu	L Hewitson	P F Yiu	4	133 lb	35.0	4-3/4
8	2	WINNING DRAGON Closed strongly CP-/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	8	129 lb	18.0	5
9	5	FAST PACE H M Chadwick · C Fownes	M Chadwick	C Fownes	2	119 lb	11.0	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick EXCEPTIONAL NICE (29.1%) finished 4th — the winner ABOVE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	EXCEPTIONAL NICE	29.1%	3.44	4	2.1
2	7	NORDIC SKY	17.6%	5.68	6	5.6
3	3	ABOVE	13.6%	7.37	1	6.7
4	5	FAST PACE	13.4%	7.49	9	11.0
5	9	VINCY	8.0%	12.56	2	10.0
6	2	WINNING DRAGON	6.6%	15.09	8	18.0
7	6	GOD OF DRAGON	5.8%	17.13	5	20.0
8	8	BLASTOISE	5.3%	18.90	3	10.0
9	1	S J TOURBILLON	0.7%	140.47	7	35.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 67.5

PLACE

3 18

8 28

9 26

QUINELLA

3,9 262.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 74.5

3,9 75

8,9 111.5

FORECAST

3,9 403

TIERCE

3,9,8 2,485

TRIO

3,8,9 641

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 181

QUARTET

3,9,8,4 5,511

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/3 1,546.5

2/9 339.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 16

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