Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-03-09 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-09 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT SEVEN, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with SUPER COMMANDER second and FABULOUS EIGHT third. The 3.5 favourite FABULOUS EIGHT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT 0.57.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 8.7 N
2 12 SUPER COMMANDER B/TT K C Leung · W Y So 1 25.0 N
3 4 FABULOUS EIGHT B-/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu 5 3.5 3/4
4 11 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB B Shinn · D J Hall 4 8.0 1
5 3 WILD WEST WING Z Purton · J Size 8 5.8 1-1/4
6 7 WHAT A LEGEND B A Hamelin · K H Ting 2 6.7 1-1/2
7 9 SEE U AGAIN D Moor · C S Shum 11 9.5 1-3/4
8 5 SUPER AXIOM H/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 6 21.0 2-1/4
9 1 FLYING DRAGON L Ferraris · C H Yip 10 14.0 2-1/4
10 2 KA YING SPIRIT B/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 12 23.0 2-3/4
11 10 NEXTMODEL TT H T Mo · T P Yung 7 25.0 4
12 6 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 9 39.0 4-1/4
0 ASTRO KING · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT SEVEN2. SUPER COMMANDER+0.05L3. FABULOUS EIGHT+0.75L4. OVERSUBSCRIBED+1L5. WILD WEST WING+1.25L6. WHAT A LEGEND+1.5L7. SEE U AGAIN+1.75L8. SUPER AXIOM+2.25L9. FLYING DRAGON+2.25L10. KA YING SPIRIT+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FABULOUS EIGHT (17.4%) finished 3rd — the winner CIRCUIT SEVEN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FABULOUS EIGHT 17.4% 5.75 3
2 3 WILD WEST WING 12.1% 8.27 5
3 9 SEE U AGAIN 11.2% 8.94 7
4 1 FLYING DRAGON 11.0% 9.07 9
5 8 CIRCUIT SEVEN 10.9% 9.13 1
6 5 SUPER AXIOM 9.9% 10.11 8
7 2 KA YING SPIRIT 6.3% 15.92 10
8 7 WHAT A LEGEND 5.5% 18.18 6
9 12 SUPER COMMANDER 4.9% 20.21 2
10 11 OVERSUBSCRIBED 4.4% 22.80 4
11 10 NEXTMODEL 3.8% 26.14 11
12 6 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 2.5% 39.73 12
FABULOUS EIGHTWILD WEST WINGSEE U AGAINFLYING DRAGONCIRCUIT SEVEN — wonSUPER AXIOMKA YING SPIRITWHAT A LEGENDSUPER COMMANDEROVERSUBSCRIBEDNEXTMODELCANTSTOPTHEFEELING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 87

PLACE

4 16

8 33.5

12 62.5

QUINELLA

8,12 882.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 70

4,12 147

8,12 272

FORECAST

8,12 2,336

TIERCE

8,12,4 7,602

TRIO

4,8,12 1,065

FIRST 4

4,8,11,12 1,909

QUARTET

8,12,4,11 58,447

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/8 686.5

3/12 305

3 PICK 1

A2 27

A3

A1