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Happy Valley · 2022-03-09 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 10 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SEIZING THE MOMENT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with PARTY WARRIOR second and FLAMING PASSION third. The 2.2 favourite PARTY WARRIOR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SEIZING THE MOMENT B1 1.09.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 3 3.0 1-1/4
2 2 PARTY WARRIOR H Z Purton · K W Lui 2 2.2 1-1/4
3 9 FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 9 12.0 3
4 7 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 4 6.7 3-1/2
5 4 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 35.0 5
6 3 EQUALETTA BLITZ B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 28.0 5
7 8 FAULDS CP-/XB1/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 1 42.0 6-3/4
8 6 SUNSET WATCH B- M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 81.0 8-1/2
9 1 MOONLIGHT VISTA B1 K Teetan · C S Shum 5 17.0 10
10 5 EXCELLENT CHARIOT B-/P1/TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu 7 17.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEIZING THE MOMENT2. PARTY WARRIOR+1.25L3. FLAMING PASSION+3L4. YO BEAUTY+3.5L5. KA YING EXCELLENT+5L6. EQUALETTA BLITZ+5L7. FAULDS+6.75L8. SUNSET WATCH+8.5L9. MOONLIGHT VISTA+10L10. EXCELLENT CHARIOT+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PARTY WARRIOR (32.7%) finished 2nd — the winner SEIZING THE MOMENT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PARTY WARRIOR 32.7% 3.06 2
2 10 SEIZING THE MOMENT 27.9% 3.59 1
3 7 YO BEAUTY 8.2% 12.19 4
4 4 KA YING EXCELLENT 6.5% 15.43 5
5 9 FLAMING PASSION 6.1% 16.45 3
6 1 MOONLIGHT VISTA 5.7% 17.44 9
7 5 EXCELLENT CHARIOT 5.7% 17.66 10
8 8 FAULDS 2.7% 37.29 7
9 6 SUNSET WATCH 2.3% 43.05 8
10 3 EQUALETTA BLITZ 2.3% 43.35 6
PARTY WARRIORSEIZING THE MOMENT — wonYO BEAUTYKA YING EXCELLENTFLAMING PASSIONMOONLIGHT VISTAEXCELLENT CHARIOTFAULDSSUNSET WATCHEQUALETTA BLITZ

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 30

PLACE

2 11

9 30

10 13.5

QUINELLA

2,10 30.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 47

2,10 15.5

9,10 62

FORECAST

10,2 67

TIERCE

10,2,9 422

TRIO

2,9,10 100

FIRST 4

2,7,9,10 81

QUARTET

10,2,9,7 1,090

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13

A2

A3

3RD DOUBLE

8/2 42

8/10 277