Happy Valley · 2022-03-09 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-09 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NERVOUS WITNESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3-1/4, with SPECIAL M second and WINNER METHOD third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NERVOUS WITNESS XB1 0.56.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 1.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | SPECIAL M B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 7.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | WINNER METHOD TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 5.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | ATOMIC FORCE TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 6.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | MR COLOURFUL CP/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 5 | 37.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 8 | 116.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | VALIANT DREAM K H Chan · K W Lui | K H Chan | K W Lui | 7 | 63.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | HAPPY SHARING TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 12 | 86.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | THE RUNNER V B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 6 | 21.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | SUNNY BOY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 11 | 171.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | MAN STAR V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 10 | 190.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | PRIDE OF EIGHT H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 9 | 54.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 44.7% | 2.24 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | SPECIAL M | 16.9% | 5.90 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | WINNER METHOD | 12.4% | 8.04 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | THE RUNNER | 8.4% | 11.86 | 9 |
| 5 | 10 | MR COLOURFUL | 3.9% | 25.87 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | VALIANT DREAM | 3.4% | 29.14 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | ATOMIC FORCE | 3.3% | 30.47 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | SUNNY BOY | 2.4% | 40.89 | 10 |
| 9 | 7 | MAN STAR | 1.8% | 54.31 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | PRIDE OF EIGHT | 1.0% | 103.28 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY SHARING | 0.9% | 116.45 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 0.8% | 125.24 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 17
PLACE
5 11.5
6 16.5
9 15
QUINELLA
5,9 42
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 19.5
5,9 19.5
6,9 38
FORECAST
5,9 71
TIERCE
5,9,6 196
TRIO
5,6,9 44
FIRST 4
3,5,6,9 65
QUARTET
5,9,6,3 737
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
6/5 39
6/9 25.5