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Happy Valley · 2022-03-09 · 22:57

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-09 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. KING'S CAPITAL, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with DR WINNING second and READY PLAYER ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite EXCEPTIONAL NICE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.49.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly 1.49.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D A Hayes 10 14.0 3/4
2 11 DR WINNING Closed strongly TT K Teetan · J Size 7 7.6 3/4
3 8 READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 8 7.6 1-1/4
4 10 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 9 6.8 1-1/2
5 6 EXCEPTIONAL NICE E/B1/TT J Moreira · W Y So 1 3.4 1-1/2
6 12 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT D Moor · K H Ting 11 82.0 1-3/4
7 4 BEAUTY GLORY Led early H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 74.0 2-1/4
8 1 SAVVY KINGMAN Z Purton · F C Lor 6 3.4 3
9 3 CINQUANTE CINQ B C L Chau · T P Yung 3 15.0 3
10 2 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 12 25.0 5-1/2
11 7 KING TOURBILLON TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 4 87.0 6-1/2
12 9 BARON ZEE B/TT M L Yeung · R Gibson 2 162.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING'S CAPITAL2. DR WINNING+0.75L3. READY PLAYER ONE+1.25L4. DARCI JOY+1.5L5. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+1.5L6. SMILING TIME+1.75L7. BEAUTY GLORY+2.25L8. SAVVY KINGMAN+3L9. CINQUANTE CINQ+3L10. APACHE PASS+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (25.7%) finished 8th — the winner KING'S CAPITAL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SAVVY KINGMAN 25.7% 3.89 8
2 6 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 23.9% 4.18 5
3 2 APACHE PASS 14.3% 7.02 10
4 10 DARCI JOY 9.8% 10.19 4
5 11 DR WINNING 8.5% 11.82 2
6 5 KING'S CAPITAL 5.5% 18.21 1
7 3 CINQUANTE CINQ 4.4% 22.51 9
8 8 READY PLAYER ONE 3.4% 29.74 3
9 12 SMILING TIME 2.1% 47.43 6
10 4 BEAUTY GLORY 1.0% 98.76 7
11 7 KING TOURBILLON 1.0% 103.98 11
12 9 BARON ZEE 0.4% 242.23 12
SAVVY KINGMANEXCEPTIONAL NICEAPACHE PASSDARCI JOYDR WINNINGKING'S CAPITAL — wonCINQUANTE CINQREADY PLAYER ONESMILING TIMEBEAUTY GLORYKING TOURBILLONBARON ZEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 141.5

PLACE

5 47

8 23

11 22.5

QUINELLA

5,11 693

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 160.5

5,11 184.5

8,11 96

FORECAST

5,11 1,402

TIERCE

5,11,8 6,894

TRIO

5,8,11 1,034

FIRST 4

5,8,10,11 1,233

QUARTET

5,11,8,10 45,624

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 45.5

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,9/5,8,11 20,382

8TH DOUBLE

5/5 280

5/11 46.5

SIX UP

2,10/6,8/1,4/6,7/5,9/5,11 1,116

10/6/4/6/5/5 15,993

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

6/5/5 940

6/5/11 142