Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-03-09 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL MOOD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by N, with STREET SCREAM second and FLAMING EAGLE third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 JOYFUL MOOD TT1 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 2 3.0 N
2 8 STREET SCREAM B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 10.0 N
3 5 FLAMING EAGLE B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 13.0 3/4
4 7 NORDIC COMBINED B/TT L Hewitson · R Gibson 1 20.0 1-1/4
5 2 TRIPLE TRIPLE CP M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 7.2 1-1/2
6 12 MOONLUCK V Borges · K W Lui 4 12.0 2
7 11 NATURAL GOLD SR/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte 7 5.7 2-3/4
8 4 SPONTANEOUS B C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 8 14.0 3
9 3 BABY B H Bentley · K H Ting 9 8.7 3
10 10 AMBITIOUS HEART B2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 10 58.0 3-1/2
11 9 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 25.0 4-1/4
12 1 EVER FORCE B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 11 24.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOYFUL MOOD2. STREET SCREAM+0.05L3. FLAMING EAGLE+0.75L4. NORDIC COMBINED+1.25L5. TRIPLE TRIPLE+1.5L6. MOONLUCK+2L7. NATURAL GOLD+2.75L8. SPONTANEOUS+3L9. BABY+3L10. AMBITIOUS HEART+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOYFUL MOOD (36.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 JOYFUL MOOD 36.7% 2.72 1
2 11 NATURAL GOLD 17.8% 5.61 7
3 2 TRIPLE TRIPLE 16.9% 5.91 5
4 4 SPONTANEOUS 5.6% 17.82 8
5 8 STREET SCREAM 5.4% 18.51 2
6 12 MOONLUCK 3.4% 29.65 6
7 5 FLAMING EAGLE 3.0% 33.23 3
8 3 BABY 2.9% 34.22 9
9 9 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 2.6% 39.12 11
10 10 AMBITIOUS HEART 2.3% 43.74 10
11 1 EVER FORCE 2.0% 51.05 12
12 7 NORDIC COMBINED 1.4% 69.78 4
JOYFUL MOOD — wonNATURAL GOLDTRIPLE TRIPLESPONTANEOUSSTREET SCREAMMOONLUCKFLAMING EAGLEBABYHEAVENLY THOUGHTAMBITIOUS HEARTEVER FORCENORDIC COMBINED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 30.5

PLACE

5 44.5

6 15

8 34

QUINELLA

6,8 255

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 94

5,8 216

6,8 86

FORECAST

6,8 478

TIERCE

6,8,5 4,224

TRIO

5,6,8 782

FIRST 4

5,6,7,8 4,290

QUARTET

6,8,5,7 70,412

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,10/5,6,8 16,321

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 21.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

10/6 90

10/8 94