Happy Valley · 2022-03-16 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-16 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. VIVA MAMA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by R Gibson, won by 3/4, with ABOVE ALL second and UNIVERSAL CROWN third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | VIVA MAMA CP/TT 0.57.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 3 | 2.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | ABOVE ALL H/XB R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 7 | 29.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 6 | 7.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | MUDITA V/XB/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 9 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | SPLIT OF A SECOND CP J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 11 | 31.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | SHANGHAI POWER B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 1 | 3.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | RAGING BLAZE TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 2 | 8.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | GIVE WAY PLEASE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 8 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | FARM BUMPER B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | MULTIPLE STAR B-/TT- M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 4 | 50.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | VIVA CHEF B K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 12 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | SEA MONARCH XB1/H2/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 10 | 80.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | VIVA MAMA | 30.4% | 3.29 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | RAGING BLAZE | 23.8% | 4.19 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 9.6% | 10.45 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | SHANGHAI POWER | 8.3% | 12.03 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | VIVA CHEF | 6.5% | 15.40 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 6.4% | 15.53 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | GIVE WAY PLEASE | 3.3% | 30.34 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | FARM BUMPER | 2.9% | 34.40 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | MUDITA | 2.6% | 38.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | ABOVE ALL | 2.2% | 45.01 | 2 |
| 11 | 12 | SEA MONARCH | 2.1% | 46.81 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | MULTIPLE STAR | 1.8% | 56.08 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 21.5
PLACE
2 21.5
5 68
7 11.5
QUINELLA
5,7 286.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 228.5
2,7 29.5
5,7 96
FORECAST
7,5 499
TIERCE
7,5,2 2,017
TRIO
2,5,7 373
FIRST 4
2,5,7,9 2,123
QUARTET
7,5,2,9 29,086
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 13.5