Happy Valley · 2022-03-16 · 19:18
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-16 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND STAR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1, with SMILING FACE second and ANONYMA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT 1.40.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | ANONYMA Closed strongly XB/TT R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 3 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 11 | 24.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 4 | 6.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | HUMBLE STEED M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 1 | 25.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 4.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | MISTER ARM Closed strongly A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 12 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | WHO LOVES THE ACE Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | HEROIC CHAMPION B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 80.0 | 18 |
| 11 | 6 | ENJOY MY LIFE XB-/TT2 K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 6 | 49.0 | 23 |
| 12 | 5 | FORTUNE WINNER Led early V/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 140.0 | 28-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DIAMOND STAR | 33.4% | 3.00 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | AMAZING BOY | 20.7% | 4.83 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN | 10.9% | 9.17 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | SMILING FACE | 8.4% | 11.87 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | MISTER ARM | 6.9% | 14.39 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 4.0% | 24.73 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD | 3.6% | 27.71 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | ANONYMA | 3.3% | 29.94 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | HUMBLE STEED | 3.3% | 30.18 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | HEROIC CHAMPION | 2.9% | 34.54 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | ENJOY MY LIFE | 1.7% | 59.40 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | FORTUNE WINNER | 0.8% | 130.92 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 36
PLACE
10 16
11 35.5
12 18.5
QUINELLA
10,12 106.5
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 78.5
10,12 38.5
11,12 99.5
FORECAST
10,12 199
TIERCE
10,12,11 1,334
TRIO
10,11,12 285
FIRST 4
9,10,11,12 1,378
QUARTET
10,12,11,9 18,352
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
7/10 95
7/12 31.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 19.5