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Happy Valley · 2022-03-16 · 19:18

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-16 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND STAR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1, with SMILING FACE second and ANONYMA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT 1.40.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 5 3.6 1
2 12 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 5.5 1
3 11 ANONYMA Closed strongly XB/TT R Maia · A T Millard 3 12.0 3-1/4
4 9 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · W Y So 11 24.0 3-1/2
5 4 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 4 6.0 4-1/4
6 8 HUMBLE STEED M Chadwick · T P Yung 1 25.0 4-1/4
7 1 MANNA FROM HEAVEN B Z Purton · K L Man 10 4.4 4-3/4
8 2 MISTER ARM Closed strongly A Badel · Y S Tsui 12 13.0 6-1/2
9 3 WHO LOVES THE ACE Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 8 12.0 11
10 7 HEROIC CHAMPION B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 7 80.0 18
11 6 ENJOY MY LIFE XB-/TT2 K H Chan · C H Yip 6 49.0 23
12 5 FORTUNE WINNER Led early V/TT H T Mo · L Ho 9 140.0 28-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND STAR2. SMILING FACE+1L3. ANONYMA+3.25L4. PAKISTAN ZINDABAD+3.5L5. AMAZING BOY+4.25L6. HUMBLE STEED+4.25L7. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+4.75L8. MISTER ARM+6.5L9. WHO LOVES THE ACE+11L10. HEROIC CHAMPION+18L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DIAMOND STAR (33.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 DIAMOND STAR 33.4% 3.00 1
2 4 AMAZING BOY 20.7% 4.83 5
3 1 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 10.9% 9.17 7
4 12 SMILING FACE 8.4% 11.87 2
5 2 MISTER ARM 6.9% 14.39 8
6 3 WHO LOVES THE ACE 4.0% 24.73 9
7 9 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD 3.6% 27.71 4
8 11 ANONYMA 3.3% 29.94 3
9 8 HUMBLE STEED 3.3% 30.18 6
10 7 HEROIC CHAMPION 2.9% 34.54 10
11 6 ENJOY MY LIFE 1.7% 59.40 11
12 5 FORTUNE WINNER 0.8% 130.92 12
DIAMOND STAR — wonAMAZING BOYMANNA FROM HEAVENSMILING FACEMISTER ARMWHO LOVES THE ACEPAKISTAN ZINDABADANONYMAHUMBLE STEEDHEROIC CHAMPIONENJOY MY LIFEFORTUNE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 36

PLACE

10 16

11 35.5

12 18.5

QUINELLA

10,12 106.5

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 78.5

10,12 38.5

11,12 99.5

FORECAST

10,12 199

TIERCE

10,12,11 1,334

TRIO

10,11,12 285

FIRST 4

9,10,11,12 1,378

QUARTET

10,12,11,9 18,352

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/10 95

7/12 31.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19.5