Happy Valley · 2022-03-16 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SCOTCH TYCOON, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with BE READY second and STAR BRITE third. The 2.6 favourite ARMOUR EAGLE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.35

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	SCOTCH TYCOON H 1.09.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui	K Teetan	K W Lui	1	119 lb	3.5	N
2	1	BE READY V C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	8	133 lb	29.0	N
3	10	STAR BRITE CP/TT J Moreira · K W Lui	J Moreira	K W Lui	10	119 lb	6.2	N
4	4	JOYFUL WIN B K H Chan · P F Yiu	K H Chan	P F Yiu	2	125 lb	15.0	1/2
5	11	ROYAL PRIDE V/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes	L Hewitson	C Fownes	4	118 lb	36.0	1
6	7	SKY FOREVER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man	K C Leung	K L Man	11	123 lb	13.0	1
7	2	ARMOUR EAGLE TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui	Z Purton	Y S Tsui	7	132 lb	2.6	1-1/2
8	8	WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT M F Poon · L Ho	M F Poon	L Ho	3	121 lb	17.0	1-3/4
9	6	A SMILE LIKE YOURS V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	9	124 lb	28.0	3-3/4
10	5	TRADER CP/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes	B Shinn	D A Hayes	6	126 lb	14.0	4-1/4
11	3	TRANSCENDENT CP/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	5	131 lb	49.0	5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick ARMOUR EAGLE (24.3%) finished 7th — the winner SCOTCH TYCOON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	ARMOUR EAGLE	24.3%	4.11	7	2.6
2	9	SCOTCH TYCOON	20.4%	4.89	1	3.5
3	10	STAR BRITE	17.1%	5.86	3	6.2
4	7	SKY FOREVER	7.6%	13.11	6	13.0
5	5	TRADER	6.4%	15.60	10	14.0
6	4	JOYFUL WIN	6.4%	15.72	4	15.0
7	1	BE READY	6.1%	16.47	2	29.0
8	8	WOOD ON FIRE	3.8%	26.39	8	17.0
9	6	A SMILE LIKE YOURS	3.6%	28.07	9	28.0
10	3	TRANSCENDENT	2.2%	44.75	11	49.0
11	11	ROYAL PRIDE	2.1%	47.68	5	36.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 35.5

PLACE

1 63.5

9 15

10 24

QUINELLA

1,9 462

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 141

1,10 223

9,10 49.5

FORECAST

9,1 731

TIERCE

9,1,10 4,744

TRIO

1,9,10 977

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 2,381

QUARTET

9,1,10,4 48,653

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 15

7TH DOUBLE

4/1 91

4/9 75.5

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