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Happy Valley · 2022-03-16 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LIKE THAT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with FARIBAULT second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 LIKE THAT V 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 7 4.4 1-1/4
2 11 FARIBAULT XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 2 5.4 1-1/4
3 8 JOYFUL GENIUS CP Z Purton · D J Hall 12 5.6 1-1/2
4 2 BINGO BINGO B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 5.4 1-1/2
5 6 FIRE BALL B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 9 36.0 2-1/4
6 5 FLYING SWORD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 8.5 2-1/4
7 7 BELLA BABY XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So 6 12.0 2-1/2
8 12 KING'S TROOPER TT R Maia · P F Yiu 1 9.6 2-1/2
9 10 TOUCH FAITH V Borges · J Size 3 36.0 3-3/4
10 4 SO AWESOME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 11 23.0 4-1/2
11 3 JAZZ STEED V1/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 8 28.0 7-3/4
12 9 SPLENDID STAR H T Mo · L Ho 10 162.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIKE THAT2. FARIBAULT+1.25L3. JOYFUL GENIUS+1.5L4. BINGO BINGO+1.5L5. FIRE BALL+2.25L6. FLYING SWORD+2.25L7. BELLA BABY+2.5L8. KING'S TROOPER+2.5L9. TOUCH FAITH+3.75L10. SO AWESOME+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (21.4%) finished 3rd — the winner LIKE THAT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 JOYFUL GENIUS 21.4% 4.67 3
2 12 KING'S TROOPER 11.9% 8.37 8
3 1 LIKE THAT 11.8% 8.45 1
4 11 FARIBAULT 10.1% 9.92 2
5 2 BINGO BINGO 9.4% 10.67 4
6 5 FLYING SWORD 8.5% 11.78 6
7 7 BELLA BABY 8.4% 11.88 7
8 4 SO AWESOME 5.5% 18.11 10
9 10 TOUCH FAITH 4.9% 20.45 9
10 3 JAZZ STEED 4.9% 20.53 11
11 6 FIRE BALL 2.5% 39.53 5
12 9 SPLENDID STAR 0.6% 164.53 12
JOYFUL GENIUSKING'S TROOPERLIKE THAT — wonFARIBAULTBINGO BINGOFLYING SWORDBELLA BABYSO AWESOMETOUCH FAITHJAZZ STEEDFIRE BALLSPLENDID STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 44.5

PLACE

1 15.5

8 20.5

11 17.5

QUINELLA

1,11 134.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 42.5

1,11 49.5

8,11 69.5

FORECAST

1,11 179

TIERCE

1,11,8 1,029

TRIO

1,8,11 217

FIRST 4

1,2,8,11 178

QUARTET

1,11,8,2 3,464

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 24.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE

7/1 1,159

7/11 202