Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-03-30 · 19:16

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-30 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MISSION BRAVO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with CHATER PINS second and AMAZING TEENS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite AMAZING TEENS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.47.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MISSION BRAVO Wire to wire H/TT 1.47.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 4.5 3/4
2 8 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · D A Hayes 3 8.4 3/4
3 2 AMAZING TEENS H/P2/TT Z Purton · J Size 4 2.6 3/4
4 6 UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly B/XB B Shinn · W Y So 7 5.5 1-1/4
5 5 JOYFUL HEART B-/PC1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 16.0 2-3/4
6 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT C L Chau · W Y So 6 13.0 3-1/4
7 7 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip 9 23.0 4-1/2
8 9 MISTER MONTE CP H T Mo · C W Chang 2 22.0 28-1/4
9 1 PERFECT TO GREAT B-/PC1 J Moreira · C Fownes 8 12.0 36

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISSION BRAVO2. CHATER PINS+0.75L3. AMAZING TEENS+0.75L4. UNITE SPIRIT+1.25L5. JOYFUL HEART+2.75L6. PAKISTAN FRIEND+3.25L7. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+4.5L8. MISTER MONTE+28.25L9. PERFECT TO GREAT+36L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING TEENS (34.8%) finished 3rd — the winner MISSION BRAVO was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 AMAZING TEENS 34.8% 2.87 3
2 1 PERFECT TO GREAT 14.4% 6.97 9
3 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND 12.7% 7.89 6
4 8 CHATER PINS 10.7% 9.38 2
5 5 JOYFUL HEART 8.6% 11.59 5
6 6 UNITE SPIRIT 7.3% 13.63 4
7 4 MISSION BRAVO 7.0% 14.32 1
8 7 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 2.4% 42.25 7
9 9 MISTER MONTE 2.2% 45.53 8
AMAZING TEENSPERFECT TO GREATPAKISTAN FRIENDCHATER PINSJOYFUL HEARTUNITE SPIRITMISSION BRAVO — wonMURRAY'S PARTNERSMISTER MONTE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 45

PLACE

2 13

4 18

8 24

QUINELLA

4,8 262

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 33

2,8 40.5

4,8 76

FORECAST

4,8 425

TIERCE

4,8,2 1,680

TRIO

2,4,8 184

FIRST 4

2,4,6,8 142

QUARTET

4,8,2,6 4,621

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16.5

A2