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Sha Tin · 2022-03-30 · 19:47

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-30 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CROWN AVENUE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C H Yip, won by 1, with SPEED FORCE second and LONDON LUCKYSTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SPEED FORCE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.38.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly 1.38.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C H Yip 5 4.4 1
2 10 SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B J Moreira · C W Chang 11 3.8 1
3 8 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC-/B2 K C Leung · L Ho 9 11.0 1-1/4
4 13 PRIME STAR Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · A T Millard 6 18.0 1-3/4
5 14 RUBY STARS Led early CP1/TT A Badel · K L Man 4 8.2 2
6 12 SPLENDID TIMING B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 8 26.0 2-3/4
7 1 STAR OF GLORY P C L Chau · C W Chang 1 9.3 3
8 11 HEROIC CHAMPION Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 14 43.0 3-1/4
9 6 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly PC1/TT D Moor · C Fownes 13 25.0 8-1/4
9 7 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So 10 7.3 8-1/4
11 3 GIVE WAY PLEASE B-/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 7 12.0 10-1/4
12 4 ILLUSTRIOUS B-/PC1/TT1 H T Mo · T P Yung 2 68.0 10-1/2
13 9 HOLYSHOWCASING B-/SR- M Chadwick · R Gibson 12 64.0 15-1/4
2 HANDSOME REBEL C Y Ho · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CROWN AVENUE2. SPEED FORCE+1L3. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+1.25L4. PRIME STAR+1.75L5. RUBY STARS+2L6. SPLENDID TIMING+2.75L7. STAR OF GLORY+3L8. HEROIC CHAMPION+3.25L9. DAILY BEAUTY+8.25L9. TURF BRILLIANT+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SPEED FORCE (21.4%) finished 2nd — the winner CROWN AVENUE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SPEED FORCE 21.4% 4.68 2
2 1 STAR OF GLORY 17.4% 5.73 7
3 13 PRIME STAR 9.8% 10.24 4
4 5 CROWN AVENUE 9.2% 10.89 1
5 7 TURF BRILLIANT 7.6% 13.09 9
6 6 DAILY BEAUTY 7.4% 13.52 9
7 8 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 7.0% 14.25 3
8 12 SPLENDID TIMING 5.0% 20.17 6
9 14 RUBY STARS 4.7% 21.41 5
10 9 HOLYSHOWCASING 3.8% 26.42 13
11 3 GIVE WAY PLEASE 3.5% 28.92 11
12 11 HEROIC CHAMPION 1.8% 55.49 8
13 4 ILLUSTRIOUS 1.5% 65.42 12
SPEED FORCESTAR OF GLORYPRIME STARCROWN AVENUE — wonTURF BRILLIANTDAILY BEAUTYLONDON LUCKYSTARSPLENDID TIMINGRUBY STARSHOLYSHOWCASINGGIVE WAY PLEASEHEROIC CHAMPIONILLUSTRIOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 44

PLACE

5 17.5

8 32.5

10 17

QUINELLA

5,10 86.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 85.5

5,10 36

8,10 85.5

FORECAST

5,10 168

TIERCE

5,10,8 1,297

TRIO

5,8,10 206

FIRST 4

5,8,10,13 1,313

QUARTET

5,10,8,13 19,550

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/2,10 23

4/5 221.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 20.5

A3