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Sha Tin · 2022-03-30 · 19:47

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly 1.38.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C H Yip 5 4.4 1
2 0 SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B J Moreira · C W Chang 11 3.8 1
3 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC-/B2 K C Leung · L Ho 9 11.0 1-1/4
4 0 PRIME STAR Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · A T Millard 6 18.0 1-3/4
5 0 RUBY STARS Led early CP1/TT A Badel · K L Man 4 8.2 2
6 0 SPLENDID TIMING B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 8 26.0 2-3/4
7 0 STAR OF GLORY P C L Chau · C W Chang 1 9.3 3
8 0 HEROIC CHAMPION Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 14 43.0 3-1/4
9 0 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So 10 7.3 8-1/4
9 0 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly PC1/TT D Moor · C Fownes 13 25.0 8-1/4
11 0 GIVE WAY PLEASE B-/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 7 12.0 10-1/4
12 0 ILLUSTRIOUS B-/PC1/TT1 H T Mo · T P Yung 2 68.0 10-1/2
13 0 HOLYSHOWCASING B-/SR- M Chadwick · R Gibson 12 64.0 15-1/4
— 0 HANDSOME REBEL C Y Ho · Y S Tsui — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-30 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CROWN AVENUE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C H Yip, won by 1, with SPEED FORCE second and LONDON LUCKYSTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SPEED FORCE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CROWN AVENUE—2. SPEED FORCE+1L3. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+1.25L4. PRIME STAR+1.75L5. RUBY STARS+2L6. SPLENDID TIMING+2.75L7. STAR OF GLORY+3L8. HEROIC CHAMPION+3.25L9. TURF BRILLIANT+8.25L9. DAILY BEAUTY+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SPEED FORCE (21.4%) finished 2nd — the winner CROWN AVENUE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SPEED FORCE 21.4% 4.68 2
2 0 STAR OF GLORY 17.4% 5.73 7
3 0 PRIME STAR 9.8% 10.24 4
4 0 CROWN AVENUE 9.2% 10.89 1
5 0 TURF BRILLIANT 7.6% 13.09 9
6 0 DAILY BEAUTY 7.4% 13.52 9
7 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 7.0% 14.25 3
8 0 SPLENDID TIMING 5.0% 20.17 6
9 0 RUBY STARS 4.7% 21.41 5
10 0 HOLYSHOWCASING 3.8% 26.42 13
11 0 GIVE WAY PLEASE 3.5% 28.92 11
12 0 HEROIC CHAMPION 1.8% 55.49 8
13 0 ILLUSTRIOUS 1.5% 65.42 12
SPEED FORCESTAR OF GLORYPRIME STARCROWN AVENUE — wonTURF BRILLIANTDAILY BEAUTYLONDON LUCKYSTARSPLENDID TIMINGRUBY STARSHOLYSHOWCASINGGIVE WAY PLEASEHEROIC CHAMPIONILLUSTRIOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 44

PLACE

5 17.5

8 32.5

10 17

QUINELLA

5,10 86.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 85.5

5,10 36

8,10 85.5

FORECAST

5,10 168

TIERCE

5,10,8 1,297

TRIO

5,8,10 206

FIRST 4

5,8,10,13 1,313

QUARTET

5,10,8,13 19,550

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/2,10 23

4/5 221.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 20.5