Sha Tin · 2022-03-30 · 21:16

Race 5

Class 1 FAST 1200m 9 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-30 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on FAST going. DUKE WAI, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1/2, with SILVER FIG second and KEEP YOU WARM third. The 1.8 favourite MAJESTIC STAR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.07.76

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	DUKE WAI B/H 1.07.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	2	123 lb	11.0	1/2
2	3	SILVER FIG B/TT C L Chau · A T Millard	C L Chau	A T Millard	8	116 lb	23.0	1/2
3	8	KEEP YOU WARM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	1	113 lb	10.0	1/2
4	7	RED DESERT V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	9	113 lb	14.0	3/4
5	4	MAJESTIC STAR K Teetan · C S Shum	K Teetan	C S Shum	3	114 lb	1.8	1-1/4
6	9	CZARSON CP/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	6	112 lb	12.0	2-3/4
7	5	MASTER MONTARO CP-/B2 J Moreira · D A Hayes	J Moreira	D A Hayes	7	115 lb	23.0	3
8	6	HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	4	111 lb	79.0	4-1/4
9	1	KURPANY B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	5	128 lb	3.9	5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick MAJESTIC STAR (35.9%) finished 5th — the winner DUKE WAI was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	MAJESTIC STAR	35.9%	2.79	5	1.8
2	5	MASTER MONTARO	26.3%	3.80	7	23.0
3	1	KURPANY	11.3%	8.81	9	3.9
4	8	KEEP YOU WARM	9.0%	11.16	3	10.0
5	2	DUKE WAI	4.4%	22.75	1	11.0
6	7	RED DESERT	4.2%	23.93	4	14.0
7	9	CZARSON	4.0%	24.89	6	12.0
8	3	SILVER FIG	2.9%	34.52	2	23.0
9	6	HIGHLY PROACTIVE	2.0%	48.89	8	79.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 115.5

PLACE

2 21.5

3 46.5

8 23.5

QUINELLA

2,3 816

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 207.5

2,8 93

3,8 191.5

FORECAST

2,3 1,707

TIERCE

2,3,8 11,454

TRIO

2,3,8 2,394

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 3,926

QUARTET

2,3,8,7 95,474

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 51

A1 —

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

10/2 548

10/3 322

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