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Sha Tin · 2022-03-30 · 22:53

Race 8

Class 3 FAST 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-30 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on FAST going. LIKE THAT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with LIGHTNING BOLT second and MAGIC SUPREME third. The 2.0 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.07.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LIKE THAT V 1.07.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 7 11.0 SH
2 7 LIGHTNING BOLT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 2.0 SH
3 10 MAGIC SUPREME CP-/B1/TT A Badel · K L Man 2 7.3 1-1/4
4 8 TRADER CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 10.0 2-1/2
5 5 DROPS OF GOD P1 V Borges · J Size 3 10.0 2-1/2
6 1 LOVING A BOOM TT B Shinn · R Gibson 1 13.0 2-3/4
7 3 SUNNY BOY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 10 28.0 3-3/4
8 2 IGNITING TT K H Chan · K W Lui 4 46.0 3-3/4
9 4 METRO WARRIOR B C Y Ho · D A Hayes 8 25.0 4-1/2
10 6 MAN STAR V H Bentley · K H Ting 9 18.0 5-1/2
11 9 RESOLUTE B H T Mo · A T Millard 12 56.0 7
12 12 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 14.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIKE THAT2. LIGHTNING BOLT+0.1L3. MAGIC SUPREME+1.25L4. TRADER+2.5L5. DROPS OF GOD+2.5L6. LOVING A BOOM+2.75L7. SUNNY BOY+3.75L8. IGNITING+3.75L9. METRO WARRIOR+4.5L10. MAN STAR+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHTNING BOLT (20.9%) finished 2nd — the winner LIKE THAT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LIGHTNING BOLT 20.9% 4.78 2
2 8 TRADER 17.5% 5.71 4
3 11 LIKE THAT 13.1% 7.61 1
4 5 DROPS OF GOD 10.6% 9.48 5
5 10 MAGIC SUPREME 8.1% 12.41 3
6 1 LOVING A BOOM 7.1% 14.01 6
7 12 YO BEAUTY 5.8% 17.25 12
8 4 METRO WARRIOR 5.0% 20.12 9
9 3 SUNNY BOY 3.9% 25.46 7
10 2 IGNITING 3.6% 27.86 8
11 9 RESOLUTE 2.4% 41.53 11
12 6 MAN STAR 2.0% 50.82 10
LIGHTNING BOLTTRADERLIKE THAT — wonDROPS OF GODMAGIC SUPREMELOVING A BOOMYO BEAUTYMETRO WARRIORSUNNY BOYIGNITINGRESOLUTEMAN STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 118

PLACE

7 12.5

10 24

11 32.5

QUINELLA

7,11 104.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 43

7,11 48

10,11 133.5

FORECAST

11,7 431

TIERCE

11,7,10 2,351

TRIO

7,10,11 276

FIRST 4

7,8,10,11 498

QUARTET

11,7,10,8 15,249

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 36

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,12/7,10,11 24,158

7TH DOUBLE

12/7 33.5

12/11 695.5

SIX UP

2/10/2/7/12/11 1,662,040

2,11/2,10/2,3/1,7/7,12/7,11 8,399

3 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

7/12/7 242

7/12/11 5,039