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Sha Tin · 2022-03-30 · 20:47

Race 4

Class 5 FAST 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-30 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on FAST going. MASTERWORK, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with WISDOM PATCH second and WINNING STRIKES third. The 3.4 favourite WISDOM PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MASTERWORK 1.09.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 6 9.9 1/2
2 2 WISDOM PATCH PC/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 4 3.4 1/2
3 12 WINNING STRIKES B-/PC1 M L Yeung · L Ho 8 20.0 1-1/2
4 8 STAR OF RED B/TT D Moor · T P Yung 1 34.0 1-1/2
5 9 REGENCY GEM B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 5 6.8 2
6 11 GOLDEN MISSION B M Chadwick · C W Chang 2 5.0 3-1/2
7 4 JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 18.0 3-3/4
8 3 BEAUTY CHEERS A Badel · J Size 7 19.0 4-1/2
9 5 TREASURE OF FIELD B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 11 56.0 5-1/2
10 1 CHIKORITA B Shinn · R Gibson 10 93.0 8-1/2
11 6 FORTUNE HAPPINESS V J Moreira · K W Lui 12 17.0 8-3/4
12 7 AQUILA B/XB V Borges · A T Millard 9 4.9 10-3/4
0 RUN RUN GOOD H Bentley · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTERWORK2. WISDOM PATCH+0.5L3. WINNING STRIKES+1.5L4. STAR OF RED+1.5L5. REGENCY GEM+2L6. GOLDEN MISSION+3.5L7. JADE THEATRE+3.75L8. BEAUTY CHEERS+4.5L9. TREASURE OF FIELD+5.5L10. CHIKORITA+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WISDOM PATCH (24.6%) finished 2nd — the winner MASTERWORK was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WISDOM PATCH 24.6% 4.07 2
2 11 GOLDEN MISSION 12.5% 8.01 6
3 9 REGENCY GEM 11.3% 8.84 5
4 3 BEAUTY CHEERS 11.1% 8.99 8
5 6 FORTUNE HAPPINESS 10.9% 9.17 11
6 10 MASTERWORK 10.4% 9.64 1
7 4 JADE THEATRE 4.3% 23.20 7
8 7 AQUILA 4.2% 23.99 12
9 1 CHIKORITA 3.3% 30.32 10
10 12 WINNING STRIKES 3.3% 30.66 3
11 5 TREASURE OF FIELD 2.6% 37.74 9
12 8 STAR OF RED 1.5% 64.77 4
WISDOM PATCHGOLDEN MISSIONREGENCY GEMBEAUTY CHEERSFORTUNE HAPPINESSMASTERWORK — wonJADE THEATREAQUILACHIKORITAWINNING STRIKESTREASURE OF FIELDSTAR OF RED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 99

PLACE

2 15.5

10 28

12 56

QUINELLA

2,10 178

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 67

2,12 131

10,12 230

FORECAST

10,2 477

TIERCE

10,2,12 6,557

TRIO

2,10,12 955

FIRST 4

2,8,10,12 8,176

QUARTET

10,2,12,8 143,121

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,11/2,10,12 28,901

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 33.5

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 13

2/10 193