Happy Valley · 2022-04-06 · 19:16
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-06 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. NATURAL STORM, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with WINNING VOLATILITY second and TELECOM CHEETAH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly V 2.17.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 1 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | WINNING VOLATILITY Closed strongly PC Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 2 | 4.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | TELECOM CHEETAH Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 6 | 19.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 23.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 10 | 5.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | PASSING FASHION Led early XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 4 | 48.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 8 | 4.4 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | BARON ZEE Closed strongly TT B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 9 | 73.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | KING DRAGON V C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 3 | 12.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SKY GEM A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 14.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 28.7% | 3.48 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | NATURAL STORM | 24.0% | 4.17 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | WONDER YEARS | 12.4% | 8.05 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | SUPER HONG KONG | 10.1% | 9.89 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | KING DRAGON | 7.5% | 13.41 | 9 |
| 6 | 10 | SKY GEM | 5.9% | 16.87 | 10 |
| 7 | 7 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 5.1% | 19.45 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 3.1% | 31.95 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | PASSING FASHION | 2.0% | 49.36 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | BARON ZEE | 1.1% | 91.96 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 31.5
PLACE
2 13.5
6 16.5
7 48
QUINELLA
2,6 71
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 30.5
2,7 103
6,7 140.5
FORECAST
2,6 149
TIERCE
2,6,7 1,379
TRIO
2,6,7 399
FIRST 4
2,5,6,7 2,039
QUARTET
2,6,7,5 19,488
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
4/2 48.5
4/6 29
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18.5
A3 —