Happy Valley · 2022-04-06 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course A 7 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-06 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY GO, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SAVAQUIN second and MONEY CATCHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite MONEY CATCHER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.49.13

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR 1.49.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	1	117 lb	17.0	1/2
2	3	SAVAQUIN Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	5	124 lb	3.5	1/2
3	2	MONEY CATCHER Led early K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	7	127 lb	2.4	3/4
4	1	TELECOM FIGHTERS Z Purton · Y S Tsui	Z Purton	Y S Tsui	4	129 lb	5.3	1-1/4
5	7	LOOKING GREAT TT C L Chau · F C Lor	C L Chau	F C Lor	6	117 lb	11.0	3-1/4
6	5	SUNNY STAR A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	2	122 lb	7.6	3-1/2
7	4	ENJOYING B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	3	123 lb	19.0	8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick SAVAQUIN (27.1%) finished 2nd — the winner CHARITY GO was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	SAVAQUIN	27.1%	3.69	2	3.5
2	1	TELECOM FIGHTERS	24.3%	4.11	4	5.3
3	2	MONEY CATCHER	13.0%	7.67	3	2.4
4	5	SUNNY STAR	10.8%	9.26	6	7.6
5	4	ENJOYING	9.5%	10.47	7	19.0
6	7	LOOKING GREAT	9.5%	10.56	5	11.0
7	6	CHARITY GO	5.7%	17.54	1	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 179.5

PLACE

2 14.5

3 12

6 33.5

QUINELLA

3,6 263

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 19

2,6 68

3,6 61

FORECAST

6,3 555

TIERCE

6,3,2 2,047

TRIO

2,3,6 170

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 157

QUARTET

6,3,2,1 6,958

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE

8/3 118

8/6 2,028.5

← Race 3 Race 5 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99