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Happy Valley · 2022-04-06 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course A 7 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR 1.49.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 1 17.0 1/2
2 0 SAVAQUIN Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 5 3.5 1/2
3 0 MONEY CATCHER Led early K C Leung · F C Lor 7 2.4 3/4
4 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS Z Purton · Y S Tsui 4 5.3 1-1/4
5 0 LOOKING GREAT TT C L Chau · F C Lor 6 11.0 3-1/4
6 0 SUNNY STAR A Badel · K W Lui 2 7.6 3-1/2
7 0 ENJOYING B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 19.0 8-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-06 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY GO, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SAVAQUIN second and MONEY CATCHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite MONEY CATCHER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GO—2. SAVAQUIN+0.5L3. MONEY CATCHER+0.75L4. TELECOM FIGHTERS+1.25L5. LOOKING GREAT+3.25L6. SUNNY STAR+3.5L7. ENJOYING+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAVAQUIN (27.1%) finished 2nd — the winner CHARITY GO was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SAVAQUIN 27.1% 3.69 2
2 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS 24.3% 4.11 4
3 0 MONEY CATCHER 13.0% 7.67 3
4 0 SUNNY STAR 10.8% 9.26 6
5 0 ENJOYING 9.5% 10.47 7
6 0 LOOKING GREAT 9.5% 10.56 5
7 0 CHARITY GO 5.7% 17.54 1
SAVAQUINTELECOM FIGHTERSMONEY CATCHERSUNNY STARENJOYINGLOOKING GREATCHARITY GO — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 179.5

PLACE

2 14.5

3 12

6 33.5

QUINELLA

3,6 263

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 19

2,6 68

3,6 61

FORECAST

6,3 555

TIERCE

6,3,2 2,047

TRIO

2,3,6 170

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 157

QUARTET

6,3,2,1 6,958

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE

8/3 118

8/6 2,028.5