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Happy Valley · 2022-04-13 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-13 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE ALL, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by SH, with TREASURE OF FIELD second and CARRY THE DIAMOND third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ABOVE ALL H/XB 0.57.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard 3 3.2 SH
2 5 TREASURE OF FIELD B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 11 23.0 SH
3 8 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC Z Purton · R Gibson 4 3.4 1-1/2
4 9 STAR OF RED B/TT L Currie · T P Yung 2 10.0 3-1/4
5 7 VICTORY MORE B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 57.0 3-1/2
6 1 STAR OF WUYI B/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 8 8.2 3-1/2
7 3 JADE THEATRE B C Wong · P F Yiu 5 28.0 5-1/4
8 11 WINNING STRIKES PC M L Yeung · L Ho 9 13.0 5-3/4
9 12 RUBY STARS CP/TT A Badel · K L Man 10 19.0 6
10 10 MUDITA V/XB/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 12 7.0 6-1/2
11 4 SIMPLE DOCTRINE B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 6 96.0 6-3/4
12 6 MASTER OF FUN B-/E1/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 7 51.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ABOVE ALL2. TREASURE OF FIELD+0.1L3. CARRY THE DIAMOND+1.5L4. STAR OF RED+3.25L5. VICTORY MORE+3.5L6. STAR OF WUYI+3.5L7. JADE THEATRE+5.25L8. WINNING STRIKES+5.75L9. RUBY STARS+6L10. MUDITA+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MUDITA (18.7%) finished 10th — the winner ABOVE ALL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MUDITA 18.7% 5.36 10
2 2 ABOVE ALL 18.5% 5.42 1
3 8 CARRY THE DIAMOND 18.4% 5.43 3
4 9 STAR OF RED 14.0% 7.12 4
5 11 WINNING STRIKES 8.6% 11.59 8
6 12 RUBY STARS 5.7% 17.61 9
7 1 STAR OF WUYI 5.2% 19.09 6
8 3 JADE THEATRE 4.1% 24.16 7
9 7 VICTORY MORE 2.1% 46.74 5
10 5 TREASURE OF FIELD 1.9% 52.12 2
11 6 MASTER OF FUN 1.5% 66.47 12
12 4 SIMPLE DOCTRINE 1.2% 84.77 11
MUDITAABOVE ALL — wonCARRY THE DIAMONDSTAR OF REDWINNING STRIKESRUBY STARSSTAR OF WUYIJADE THEATREVICTORY MORETREASURE OF FIELDMASTER OF FUNSIMPLE DOCTRINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 32

PLACE

2 13.5

5 54

8 14.5

QUINELLA

2,5 342

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 107.5

2,8 27

5,8 110.5

FORECAST

2,5 453

TIERCE

2,5,8 1,841

TRIO

2,5,8 358

FIRST 4

2,5,8,9 580

QUARTET

2,5,8,9 11,625

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 16.5

A3