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Happy Valley · 2022-04-13 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EASON, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with TORONADO PHANTOM second and GLUCK RACER third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 EASON TT 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 12 2.6 1-3/4
2 2 TORONADO PHANTOM TT V Borges · J Size 4 3.9 1-3/4
3 6 GLUCK RACER V H Bentley · K H Ting 7 23.0 2
4 5 JOYFUL WIN B K H Chan · P F Yiu 3 20.0 2-1/4
5 7 EXCELLENT DADDY CP-/TT- L Hewitson · T P Yung 8 35.0 2-3/4
6 8 SUPER DOBBIN B C L Chau · A T Millard 6 44.0 3
7 1 WIND N GRASS TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 11 53.0 3
8 11 MERCURIAL H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 5 18.0 3-1/2
9 10 WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT M L Yeung · L Ho 9 80.0 4
10 3 ARMOUR EAGLE TT A Badel · Y S Tsui 2 7.1 4-1/4
11 9 STOCK LEGEND H/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 1 6.5 5-1/4
12 12 MAJESTIC KNIGHT CP1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 10 19.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EASON2. TORONADO PHANTOM+1.75L3. GLUCK RACER+2L4. JOYFUL WIN+2.25L5. EXCELLENT DADDY+2.75L6. SUPER DOBBIN+3L7. WIND N GRASS+3L8. MERCURIAL+3.5L9. WOOD ON FIRE+4L10. ARMOUR EAGLE+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EASON (40.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 EASON 40.8% 2.45 1
2 3 ARMOUR EAGLE 15.3% 6.53 10
3 9 STOCK LEGEND 10.9% 9.21 11
4 2 TORONADO PHANTOM 7.3% 13.65 2
5 5 JOYFUL WIN 5.9% 17.08 4
6 11 MERCURIAL 4.9% 20.26 8
7 6 GLUCK RACER 4.1% 24.64 3
8 12 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 3.7% 26.98 12
9 8 SUPER DOBBIN 2.6% 38.56 6
10 7 EXCELLENT DADDY 1.6% 61.13 5
11 10 WOOD ON FIRE 1.5% 68.00 9
12 1 WIND N GRASS 1.4% 71.02 7
EASON — wonARMOUR EAGLESTOCK LEGENDTORONADO PHANTOMJOYFUL WINMERCURIALGLUCK RACERMAJESTIC KNIGHTSUPER DOBBINEXCELLENT DADDYWOOD ON FIREWIND N GRASS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 26

PLACE

2 15.5

4 14

6 49

QUINELLA

2,4 60.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 28.5

2,6 151.5

4,6 120

FORECAST

4,2 105

TIERCE

4,2,6 1,520

TRIO

2,4,6 541

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 1,307

QUARTET

4,2,6,5 12,817

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,8/2,4,6 72,931

8TH DOUBLE

8/2 14.5

8/4 50.5

SIX UP

2,3/4,7/9,10/1,5/3,8/2,4 6,977

3/7/9/5/8/4 60,846

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

5/8/2 127

5/8/4 444