Happy Valley · 2022-04-13 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STREET SCREAM, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with TAKE WHAT YOU NEED second and MELBOURNE HALL third. The 2.3 favourite AMIGOS GIGGLE finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | STREET SCREAM B/H/TT 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 12 | 8.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 8 | 39.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | MELBOURNE HALL H/XB H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 6 | 31.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | ISLAND SURPRISE TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | AMIGOS GIGGLE J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 2.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | KING'S TROOPER TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 10 | 54.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | MIRACLE VICTORY TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.4 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | MEDIC ELITE B/TT C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan | C Y Ho | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 76.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | SUPER KINGDOM B R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 5 | 75.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 1 | 10.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | ARES B H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 4 | 8.1 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 27.1% | 3.69 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | MIRACLE VICTORY | 12.9% | 7.73 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME | 10.9% | 9.20 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | STREET SCREAM | 8.6% | 11.58 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 7.0% | 14.39 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | KING'S TROOPER | 6.4% | 15.58 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 6.2% | 16.09 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | NORDIC COMBINED | 6.1% | 16.46 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | MELBOURNE HALL | 5.5% | 18.19 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | ARES | 3.7% | 26.81 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | SUPER KINGDOM | 3.3% | 29.95 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | MEDIC ELITE | 2.2% | 44.98 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 85.5
PLACE
3 24
8 74.5
10 62
QUINELLA
3,8 1,127.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 270.5
3,10 270
8,10 758.5
FORECAST
3,8 1,730
TIERCE
3,8,10 26,229
TRIO
3,8,10 6,391
FIRST 4
2,3,8,10 6,896
QUARTET
3,8,10,2 168,073
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/3 224.5
5/8 164.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 21.5
A1 —