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Happy Valley · 2022-04-27 · 19:45

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 2200m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.15.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT 2.15.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 7.4 1-1/2
2 0 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly V C Y Ho · P F Yiu 4 5.8 1-1/2
3 0 STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 10 56.0 1-1/2
4 0 PASSING FASHION Led early XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip 2 21.0 1-3/4
5 0 GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP-/H/B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 19.0 3
6 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 8 18.0 3
7 0 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly V/TT A Badel · K H Ting 12 10.0 4-1/4
8 0 TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT J Moreira · C H Yip 6 4.2 4-1/4
9 0 GOD OF DRAGON B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 6.0 6-1/2
10 0 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT C Wong · C H Yip 11 32.0 7-1/4
11 0 WINNING VOLATILITY PC Z Purton · K W Lui 9 5.4 7-1/2
12 0 BARON ZEE CP1/TT B Shinn · R Gibson 1 48.0 10-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-27 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WONDER YEARS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with NATURAL STORM second and STIMULATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite TELECOM CHEETAH finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER YEARS—2. NATURAL STORM+1.5L3. STIMULATION+1.5L4. PASSING FASHION+1.75L5. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+3L6. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3L7. SUPER ELEGANCE+4.25L8. TELECOM CHEETAH+4.25L9. GOD OF DRAGON+6.5L10. FLASH FAMOUS+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TELECOM CHEETAH (26.1%) finished 8th — the winner WONDER YEARS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TELECOM CHEETAH 26.1% 3.83 8
2 0 WINNING VOLATILITY 21.7% 4.62 11
3 0 NATURAL STORM 15.4% 6.50 2
4 0 FLASH FAMOUS 7.4% 13.53 10
5 0 WONDER YEARS 6.2% 16.07 1
6 0 GOD OF DRAGON 5.6% 17.76 9
7 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 4.9% 20.57 6
8 0 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 3.8% 26.48 5
9 0 SUPER ELEGANCE 3.3% 30.23 7
10 0 PASSING FASHION 2.5% 39.62 4
11 0 STIMULATION 1.9% 53.22 3
12 0 BARON ZEE 1.2% 81.22 12
TELECOM CHEETAHWINNING VOLATILITYNATURAL STORMFLASH FAMOUSWONDER YEARS — wonGOD OF DRAGONVICTORIOUS SEEKERGOLDEN SPECTRUMSUPER ELEGANCEPASSING FASHIONSTIMULATIONBARON ZEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 74

PLACE

1 22

5 144.5

10 24.5

QUINELLA

1,10 262

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 732.5

1,10 89

5,10 682

FORECAST

10,1 561

TIERCE

10,1,5 36,886

TRIO

1,5,10 7,136

FIRST 4

1,5,10,12 18,595

QUARTET

10,1,5,12 419,243

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 123.5

5/10 682

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 28

A1 —