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Happy Valley · 2022-04-27 · 19:45

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 2200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-27 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WONDER YEARS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with NATURAL STORM second and STIMULATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite TELECOM CHEETAH finished 8th.

Result

Official · 2.15.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT 2.15.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 7.4 1-1/2
2 1 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly V C Y Ho · P F Yiu 4 5.8 1-1/2
3 5 STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 10 56.0 1-1/2
4 12 PASSING FASHION Led early XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip 2 21.0 1-3/4
5 4 GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP-/H/B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 19.0 3
6 7 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 8 18.0 3
7 9 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly V/TT A Badel · K H Ting 12 10.0 4-1/4
8 8 TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT J Moreira · C H Yip 6 4.2 4-1/4
9 2 GOD OF DRAGON B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 6.0 6-1/2
10 11 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT C Wong · C H Yip 11 32.0 7-1/4
11 6 WINNING VOLATILITY PC Z Purton · K W Lui 9 5.4 7-1/2
12 3 BARON ZEE CP1/TT B Shinn · R Gibson 1 48.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER YEARS2. NATURAL STORM+1.5L3. STIMULATION+1.5L4. PASSING FASHION+1.75L5. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+3L6. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3L7. SUPER ELEGANCE+4.25L8. TELECOM CHEETAH+4.25L9. GOD OF DRAGON+6.5L10. FLASH FAMOUS+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TELECOM CHEETAH (26.1%) finished 8th — the winner WONDER YEARS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 TELECOM CHEETAH 26.1% 3.83 8
2 6 WINNING VOLATILITY 21.7% 4.62 11
3 1 NATURAL STORM 15.4% 6.50 2
4 11 FLASH FAMOUS 7.4% 13.53 10
5 10 WONDER YEARS 6.2% 16.07 1
6 2 GOD OF DRAGON 5.6% 17.76 9
7 7 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 4.9% 20.57 6
8 4 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 3.8% 26.48 5
9 9 SUPER ELEGANCE 3.3% 30.23 7
10 12 PASSING FASHION 2.5% 39.62 4
11 5 STIMULATION 1.9% 53.22 3
12 3 BARON ZEE 1.2% 81.22 12
TELECOM CHEETAHWINNING VOLATILITYNATURAL STORMFLASH FAMOUSWONDER YEARS — wonGOD OF DRAGONVICTORIOUS SEEKERGOLDEN SPECTRUMSUPER ELEGANCEPASSING FASHIONSTIMULATIONBARON ZEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 74

PLACE

1 22

5 144.5

10 24.5

QUINELLA

1,10 262

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 732.5

1,10 89

5,10 682

FORECAST

10,1 561

TIERCE

10,1,5 36,886

TRIO

1,5,10 7,136

FIRST 4

1,5,10,12 18,595

QUARTET

10,1,5,12 419,243

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 123.5

5/10 682

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 28

A3