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Happy Valley · 2022-04-27 · 20:47

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VALIANT ELEGANCE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-3/4, with AMBITIOUS HEART second and WINNING ICEY third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 2.9 1-3/4
2 12 AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 6 49.0 1-3/4
3 5 WINNING ICEY TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 8 7.1 2
4 9 HARRIER JET B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 5 13.0 2-1/4
5 8 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 10.0 2-1/2
6 10 RUN THE TABLE H M F Poon · K W Lui 2 13.0 3
7 11 SALUTATION B-/P2/TT V Borges · J Size 3 13.0 4-1/2
8 3 HAPPY FOREVER CP-/XB/TT Z Purton · K L Man 7 5.5 4-1/2
9 6 WHAT A LEGEND B A Hamelin · K H Ting 4 10.0 4-3/4
10 7 UNITED ENDEAVORS H H W Lai · L Ho 11 147.0 5-1/4
11 1 HURRY HURRY GAIN C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 36.0 6-1/2
12 4 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 12.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALIANT ELEGANCE2. AMBITIOUS HEART+1.75L3. WINNING ICEY+2L4. HARRIER JET+2.25L5. JIANGXI STAMINA+2.5L6. RUN THE TABLE+3L7. SALUTATION+4.5L8. HAPPY FOREVER+4.5L9. WHAT A LEGEND+4.75L10. UNITED ENDEAVORS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HAPPY FOREVER (20.3%) finished 8th — the winner VALIANT ELEGANCE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 HAPPY FOREVER 20.3% 4.92 8
2 4 PERFECT PEACH 13.2% 7.60 12
3 5 WINNING ICEY 12.0% 8.30 3
4 10 RUN THE TABLE 10.4% 9.60 6
5 8 JIANGXI STAMINA 9.4% 10.65 5
6 2 VALIANT ELEGANCE 8.1% 12.41 1
7 9 HARRIER JET 6.7% 14.97 4
8 6 WHAT A LEGEND 6.4% 15.56 9
9 1 HURRY HURRY GAIN 6.1% 16.35 11
10 11 SALUTATION 5.0% 20.07 7
11 12 AMBITIOUS HEART 1.8% 56.75 2
12 7 UNITED ENDEAVORS 0.6% 155.08 10
HAPPY FOREVERPERFECT PEACHWINNING ICEYRUN THE TABLEJIANGXI STAMINAVALIANT ELEGANCE — wonHARRIER JETWHAT A LEGENDHURRY HURRY GAINSALUTATIONAMBITIOUS HEARTUNITED ENDEAVORS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29

PLACE

2 15

5 21

12 123

QUINELLA

2,12 824.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 45.5

2,12 253.5

5,12 450

FORECAST

2,12 1,277

TIERCE

2,12,5 9,726

TRIO

2,5,12 1,180

FIRST 4

2,5,9,12 3,115

QUARTET

2,12,5,9 76,849

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,11/2,5,12 348,484

3 PICK 1

A2 19.5

A3

A1

4TH DOUBLE

2/2 449

2/12 445