Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-04-27 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-27 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WORLD FAMOUS, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with WIN WIN FIGHTER second and SUNNY DELIGHT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WORLD FAMOUS Wire to wire V-/B2 1.39.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu 7 12.0 3/4
2 4 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B Shinn · K W Lui 4 3.7 3/4
3 11 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 12 15.0 1-1/4
4 8 KING DRAGON Closed strongly V A Badel · K L Man 8 28.0 1-1/4
5 5 CHARIZARD B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 1 17.0 1-3/4
6 7 JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly CP- Z Purton · D J Hall 5 2.8 2
7 6 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB K C Leung · W Y So 9 48.0 3-1/2
8 9 ON EXCEL STAR B/XB C Y Ho · K H Ting 10 42.0 4-1/4
9 1 FEARLESS FIRE XB C L Chau · D A Hayes 6 9.0 4-1/2
10 10 GO FOR TEA J Moreira · F C Lor 2 7.7 8-3/4
11 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 33.0 11-3/4
12 12 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 3 26.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WORLD FAMOUS2. WIN WIN FIGHTER+0.75L3. SUNNY DELIGHT+1.25L4. KING DRAGON+1.25L5. CHARIZARD+1.75L6. JOYFUL GENIUS+2L7. BRIGHT KID+3.5L8. ON EXCEL STAR+4.25L9. FEARLESS FIRE+4.5L10. GO FOR TEA+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (24.9%) finished 6th — the winner WORLD FAMOUS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 JOYFUL GENIUS 24.9% 4.01 6
2 10 GO FOR TEA 20.0% 5.01 10
3 5 CHARIZARD 11.2% 8.92 5
4 12 ROYAL AGILITY 10.8% 9.23 12
5 4 WIN WIN FIGHTER 8.3% 12.12 2
6 1 FEARLESS FIRE 6.5% 15.37 9
7 9 ON EXCEL STAR 5.9% 16.90 8
8 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH 4.0% 25.03 11
9 8 KING DRAGON 3.4% 29.73 4
10 11 SUNNY DELIGHT 2.3% 43.73 3
11 2 WORLD FAMOUS 1.9% 53.54 1
12 6 BRIGHT KID 0.9% 114.21 7
JOYFUL GENIUSGO FOR TEACHARIZARDROYAL AGILITYWIN WIN FIGHTERFEARLESS FIREON EXCEL STARMORE THAN ENOUGHKING DRAGONSUNNY DELIGHTWORLD FAMOUS — wonBRIGHT KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 125.5

PLACE

2 37

4 14

11 34

QUINELLA

2,4 237.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 89.5

2,11 272

4,11 86

FORECAST

2,4 686

TIERCE

2,4,11 6,982

TRIO

2,4,11 1,087

FIRST 4

2,4,8,11 4,150

QUARTET

2,4,11,8 87,860

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 17.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE

10/2 827.5

10/4 42