Sha Tin · 2022-05-07 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-07 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOOD LUCK FRIEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with THE GOLDEN SCENERY second and WINNER METHOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite IMA SINGLE MAN finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.21.56

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	GOOD LUCK FRIEND Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu	K Teetan	P F Yiu	7	113 lb	11.0	SH
2	4	THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly H1/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	4	118 lb	10.0	SH
3	8	WINNER METHOD Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	5	111 lb	3.5	1
4	5	MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · D A Hayes	C Y Ho	D A Hayes	6	117 lb	13.0	2
5	2	SILVER EXPRESS B V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	8	128 lb	12.0	3-1/2
6	1	CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Led early CP/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz	K H Chan	A S Cruz	3	128 lb	8.4	4
7	7	HINCHINLOVE B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung	M Chadwick	T P Yung	2	113 lb	20.0	4-1/2
8	3	IMA SINGLE MAN CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	1	120 lb	2.4	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick IMA SINGLE MAN (26.5%) finished 8th — the winner GOOD LUCK FRIEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	IMA SINGLE MAN	26.5%	3.77	8	2.4
2	6	GOOD LUCK FRIEND	16.3%	6.14	1	11.0
3	1	CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT	14.9%	6.69	6	8.4
4	2	SILVER EXPRESS	13.1%	7.64	5	12.0
5	4	THE GOLDEN SCENERY	11.3%	8.84	2	10.0
6	8	WINNER METHOD	10.9%	9.17	3	3.5
7	5	MASTER MONTARO	4.1%	24.64	4	13.0
8	7	HINCHINLOVE	2.9%	34.69	7	20.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 110

PLACE

4 23.5

6 27

8 14.5

QUINELLA

4,6 423.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 103

4,8 42.5

6,8 59

FORECAST

6,4 871

TIERCE

6,4,8 3,199

TRIO

4,6,8 421

FIRST 4

4,5,6,8 726

QUARTET

6,4,8,5 20,697

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/4 205

1/6 1,274

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 22.5

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