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Sha Tin · 2022-05-07 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-07 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ERIMO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by HD, with SUPER RED DRAGON second and RAINBOW LIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ERIMO Closed strongly H/B1 1.22.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 2 2.0 HD
2 7 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 9 28.0 HD
3 4 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly CP-/SR-/XB-/B1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 17.0 2
4 11 SUPER HIGHWAY Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 3 8.2 2-1/4
5 12 RED BRICK FIGHTER B Z Purton · D J Hall 5 4.6 2-1/4
6 13 APEX TOP Led early B M Chadwick · A T Millard 14 11.0 3
7 9 LORIZ M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 16.0 3-3/4
8 8 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 8 31.0 4
9 2 DUBLIN STAR Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 11 34.0 5
10 10 LEISURE AND GOLD Closed strongly H1 V Borges · C H Yip 10 172.0 8-3/4
11 5 BALLISTIC MAN SR-/CP1/H1/TT R Maia · K H Ting 6 125.0 9
12 14 GREAT TREASURE H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 26.0 10-3/4
13 1 TRUST ME B/H K H Chan · C H Yip 13 37.0 11
14 6 MANY WINS B A Hamelin · K W Lui 12 212.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ERIMO2. SUPER RED DRAGON+0.2L3. RAINBOW LIGHT+2L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+2.25L5. RED BRICK FIGHTER+2.25L6. APEX TOP+3L7. LORIZ+3.75L8. CITY LEGEND+4L9. DUBLIN STAR+5L10. LEISURE AND GOLD+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERIMO (42.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ERIMO 42.0% 2.38 1
2 12 RED BRICK FIGHTER 23.4% 4.28 5
3 13 APEX TOP 7.9% 12.65 6
4 11 SUPER HIGHWAY 5.2% 19.23 4
5 9 LORIZ 5.1% 19.64 7
6 4 RAINBOW LIGHT 4.3% 23.12 3
7 7 SUPER RED DRAGON 3.8% 26.52 2
8 14 GREAT TREASURE 2.1% 47.84 12
9 8 CITY LEGEND 2.1% 47.90 8
10 2 DUBLIN STAR 1.3% 76.45 9
11 1 TRUST ME 1.2% 85.00 13
12 5 BALLISTIC MAN 0.6% 154.63 11
13 10 LEISURE AND GOLD 0.6% 176.43 10
14 6 MANY WINS 0.5% 209.81 14
ERIMO — wonRED BRICK FIGHTERAPEX TOPSUPER HIGHWAYLORIZRAINBOW LIGHTSUPER RED DRAGONGREAT TREASURECITY LEGENDDUBLIN STARTRUST MEBALLISTIC MANLEISURE AND GOLDMANY WINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 20.5

PLACE

3 11

4 29.5

7 52

QUINELLA

3,7 232

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 54

3,7 85

4,7 299.5

FORECAST

3,7 278

TIERCE

3,7,4 2,149

TRIO

3,4,7 552

FIRST 4

3,4,7,11 846

QUARTET

3,7,4,11 11,354

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14

A3

8TH DOUBLE

8/3 138.5

8/7 252.5