Happy Valley · 2022-05-25 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MY ECSTATIC, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with WORLD FAMOUS second and GIFT OF LIFELINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite BEAUTY GLORY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.88

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	MY ECSTATIC Closed strongly TT 1.38.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	6	119 lb	10.0	N
2	5	WORLD FAMOUS Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P F Yiu	L Hewitson	P F Yiu	8	120 lb	5.4	N
3	4	GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B C L Chau · A T Millard	C L Chau	A T Millard	7	119 lb	10.0	3/4
4	8	READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang	K Teetan	C W Chang	3	118 lb	4.8	1
5	2	BEAUTY GLORY Led early H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	1	126 lb	2.4	2-3/4
6	7	DR WINNING TT V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	4	118 lb	8.1	2-3/4
7	3	WEALTHY DELIGHT B- J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	2	125 lb	14.0	5-3/4
8	1	MOONLIGHT VISTA A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	5	128 lb	43.0	12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick BEAUTY GLORY (36.2%) finished 5th — the winner MY ECSTATIC was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	BEAUTY GLORY	36.2%	2.76	5	2.4
2	8	READY PLAYER ONE	17.3%	5.76	4	4.8
3	6	MY ECSTATIC	12.7%	7.88	1	10.0
4	3	WEALTHY DELIGHT	11.5%	8.72	7	14.0
5	4	GIFT OF LIFELINE	8.0%	12.49	3	10.0
6	5	WORLD FAMOUS	6.9%	14.42	2	5.4
7	7	DR WINNING	5.9%	16.91	6	8.1
8	1	MOONLIGHT VISTA	1.4%	70.81	8	43.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 100.5

PLACE

4 27.5

5 16

6 27.5

QUINELLA

5,6 236.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 68

4,6 113.5

5,6 70

FORECAST

6,5 546

TIERCE

6,5,4 2,909

TRIO

4,5,6 586

FIRST 4

4,5,6,8 514

QUARTET

6,5,4,8 16,465

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 52

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99