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Happy Valley · 2022-05-25 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MY ECSTATIC Closed strongly TT 1.38.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 6 10.0 N
2 0 WORLD FAMOUS Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P F Yiu 8 5.4 N
3 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B C L Chau · A T Millard 7 10.0 3/4
4 0 READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 3 4.8 1
5 0 BEAUTY GLORY Led early H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 1 2.4 2-3/4
6 0 DR WINNING TT V Borges · J Size 4 8.1 2-3/4
7 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT B- J Moreira · J Size 2 14.0 5-3/4
8 0 MOONLIGHT VISTA A Badel · C S Shum 5 43.0 12-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MY ECSTATIC, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with WORLD FAMOUS second and GIFT OF LIFELINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite BEAUTY GLORY finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY ECSTATIC—2. WORLD FAMOUS+0.05L3. GIFT OF LIFELINE+0.75L4. READY PLAYER ONE+1L5. BEAUTY GLORY+2.75L6. DR WINNING+2.75L7. WEALTHY DELIGHT+5.75L8. MOONLIGHT VISTA+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY GLORY (36.2%) finished 5th — the winner MY ECSTATIC was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY GLORY 36.2% 2.76 5
2 0 READY PLAYER ONE 17.3% 5.76 4
3 0 MY ECSTATIC 12.7% 7.88 1
4 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT 11.5% 8.72 7
5 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 8.0% 12.49 3
6 0 WORLD FAMOUS 6.9% 14.42 2
7 0 DR WINNING 5.9% 16.91 6
8 0 MOONLIGHT VISTA 1.4% 70.81 8
BEAUTY GLORYREADY PLAYER ONEMY ECSTATIC — wonWEALTHY DELIGHTGIFT OF LIFELINEWORLD FAMOUSDR WINNINGMOONLIGHT VISTA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 100.5

PLACE

4 27.5

5 16

6 27.5

QUINELLA

5,6 236.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 68

4,6 113.5

5,6 70

FORECAST

6,5 546

TIERCE

6,5,4 2,909

TRIO

4,5,6 586

FIRST 4

4,5,6,8 514

QUARTET

6,5,4,8 16,465

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 52

A2 —

A1 —