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Happy Valley · 2022-05-25 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-25 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REGENCY POET, ridden by H Bentley and trained by T P Yung, won by HD, with ARES second and FARM BUMPER third. The 3.5 favourite CORDYCEPS ONE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 REGENCY POET TT 1.10.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · T P Yung 1 3.8 HD
2 2 ARES B-/V1 B Shinn · F C Lor 5 8.3 HD
3 10 FARM BUMPER K C Leung · K L Man 6 12.0 1-1/2
4 4 CORDYCEPS ONE H Z Purton · K W Lui 3 3.5 2
5 3 HAPPY PROFIT TT R Maia · C S Shum 4 24.0 2-3/4
6 9 SPLIT OF A SECOND CP K Teetan · W Y So 8 12.0 3-1/4
7 7 FORTUNE HERO B/TT K H Chan · R Gibson 2 10.0 3-1/2
8 12 VIVA CHEF P M Chadwick · L Ho 9 36.0 3-1/2
9 1 DASSIT J Moreira · J Size 10 11.0 3-3/4
10 6 INESTIMABLE TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 7 19.0 4-1/4
11 5 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 12 18.0 5
12 8 JADE THEATRE B/TT1 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 11 28.0 6-1/4
0 CIGAR BUDDIES A Hamelin · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY POET2. ARES+0.2L3. FARM BUMPER+1.5L4. CORDYCEPS ONE+2L5. HAPPY PROFIT+2.75L6. SPLIT OF A SECOND+3.25L7. FORTUNE HERO+3.5L8. VIVA CHEF+3.5L9. DASSIT+3.75L10. INESTIMABLE+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DASSIT (29.1%) finished 9th — the winner REGENCY POET was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DASSIT 29.1% 3.43 9
2 11 REGENCY POET 14.9% 6.70 1
3 4 CORDYCEPS ONE 10.4% 9.64 4
4 5 TELECOM MISSILE 7.2% 13.97 11
5 9 SPLIT OF A SECOND 7.0% 14.38 6
6 7 FORTUNE HERO 6.9% 14.60 7
7 10 FARM BUMPER 6.5% 15.39 3
8 2 ARES 5.6% 17.78 2
9 6 INESTIMABLE 4.1% 24.27 10
10 12 VIVA CHEF 3.5% 28.39 8
11 8 JADE THEATRE 2.7% 36.47 12
12 3 HAPPY PROFIT 2.1% 47.90 5
DASSITREGENCY POET — wonCORDYCEPS ONETELECOM MISSILESPLIT OF A SECONDFORTUNE HEROFARM BUMPERARESINESTIMABLEVIVA CHEFJADE THEATREHAPPY PROFIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 38.5

PLACE

2 27.5

10 40.5

11 16

QUINELLA

2,11 167

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 167.5

2,11 65

10,11 81.5

FORECAST

11,2 279

TIERCE

11,2,10 2,415

TRIO

2,10,11 706

FIRST 4

2,4,10,11 428

QUARTET

11,2,10,4 10,450

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,10/2,10,11 92,055

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2

A3

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 125

4/11 472.5