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Happy Valley · 2022-05-25 · 22:17

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE ALL, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by HD, with SIX BEST FRIENDS second and EVER FORCE third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ABOVE ALL H/XB 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard 6 4.3 HD
2 10 SIX BEST FRIENDS TT C L Chau · K L Man 8 67.0 HD
3 5 EVER FORCE B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 5.8 1-1/2
4 2 SMILING CITY V M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 5.5 2
5 7 TUCHEL L Currie · J Size 11 27.0 2
6 9 JAZZ STEED V2/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 6.4 2-1/2
7 1 REGENCY STAR CP Z Purton · C S Shum 9 8.0 2-3/4
8 3 ISLAND SHINE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 10.0 3
9 11 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B-/V2 A Badel · C H Yip 1 8.7 4-3/4
10 8 HO HO JUNIOR H C Y Ho · D J Hall 3 36.0 4-3/4
11 6 TO INFINITY L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 12 92.0 5
12 12 GOOD SHOT H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 20.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ABOVE ALL2. SIX BEST FRIENDS+0.2L3. EVER FORCE+1.5L4. SMILING CITY+2L5. TUCHEL+2L6. JAZZ STEED+2.5L7. REGENCY STAR+2.75L8. ISLAND SHINE+3L9. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+4.75L10. HO HO JUNIOR+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JAZZ STEED (21.2%) finished 6th — the winner ABOVE ALL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 JAZZ STEED 21.2% 4.71 6
2 4 ABOVE ALL 18.7% 5.36 1
3 5 EVER FORCE 12.3% 8.10 3
4 3 ISLAND SHINE 10.9% 9.20 8
5 1 REGENCY STAR 8.4% 11.87 7
6 2 SMILING CITY 7.7% 13.02 4
7 11 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 7.6% 13.19 9
8 7 TUCHEL 6.5% 15.31 5
9 12 GOOD SHOT 3.0% 33.25 12
10 10 SIX BEST FRIENDS 1.7% 59.73 2
11 8 HO HO JUNIOR 1.2% 80.91 10
12 6 TO INFINITY 0.7% 137.92 11
JAZZ STEEDABOVE ALL — wonEVER FORCEISLAND SHINEREGENCY STARSMILING CITYHEAVENLY THOUGHTTUCHELGOOD SHOTSIX BEST FRIENDSHO HO JUNIORTO INFINITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 43.5

PLACE

4 19.5

5 22

10 152.5

QUINELLA

4,10 2,095.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 58.5

4,10 557

5,10 655

FORECAST

4,10 2,450

TIERCE

4,10,5 22,984

TRIO

4,5,10 3,811

FIRST 4

2,4,5,10 2,959

QUARTET

4,10,5,2 78,194

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 26

A2

7TH DOUBLE

4,6/4 94

4,6/10 277