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Happy Valley · 2022-06-01 · 18:45

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SWOT TROOPERS WIND, ridden by L Currie and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with SUNNY DELIGHT second and MISTER MONTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite SUNNY DELIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B 1.39.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · D J Hall 1 4.9 1
2 8 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 7 2.7 1
3 10 MISTER MONTE Led early B H T Mo · C W Chang 3 12.0 1-1/2
4 3 PAINTER B1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 6.9 3-1/2
5 4 RED IMPACT B1/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 5 5.0 3-3/4
6 7 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H C L Chau · L Ho 8 64.0 7-1/2
7 2 SO AWESOME B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 4 12.0 9-1/2
8 5 SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly SR/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 28.0 10-3/4
9 9 SURE WIN WIN B M F Poon · T P Yung 9 23.0 11-3/4
10 1 V CHEVALIERS B/H/TT K C Leung · K L Man 6 21.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWOT TROOPERS WIND2. SUNNY DELIGHT+1L3. MISTER MONTE+1.5L4. PAINTER+3.5L5. RED IMPACT+3.75L6. UNITED ENDEAVORS+7.5L7. SO AWESOME+9.5L8. SHADOW BREAKER+10.75L9. SURE WIN WIN+11.75L10. V CHEVALIERS+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUNNY DELIGHT (35.0%) finished 2nd — the winner SWOT TROOPERS WIND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUNNY DELIGHT 35.0% 2.85 2
2 6 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 19.0% 5.27 1
3 4 RED IMPACT 15.4% 6.48 5
4 2 SO AWESOME 9.4% 10.66 7
5 3 PAINTER 5.2% 19.28 4
6 1 V CHEVALIERS 4.6% 21.79 10
7 10 MISTER MONTE 3.7% 26.99 3
8 5 SHADOW BREAKER 3.3% 30.10 8
9 9 SURE WIN WIN 3.1% 32.75 9
10 7 UNITED ENDEAVORS 1.3% 74.34 6
SUNNY DELIGHTSWOT TROOPERS WIND — wonRED IMPACTSO AWESOMEPAINTERV CHEVALIERSMISTER MONTESHADOW BREAKERSURE WIN WINUNITED ENDEAVORS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 49

PLACE

6 18

8 13.5

10 31.5

QUINELLA

6,8 67

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 29

6,10 95.5

8,10 69.5

FORECAST

6,8 168

TIERCE

6,8,10 1,311

TRIO

6,8,10 262

FIRST 4

3,6,8,10 392

QUARTET

6,8,10,3 7,040

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 23.5

A3