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Happy Valley · 2022-06-01 · 22:58

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DR WINNING Closed strongly TT 1.39.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 11 37.0 HD
2 0 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 4.7 HD
3 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B C L Chau · A T Millard 3 11.0 1/2
4 0 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly K Teetan · K W Lui 4 3.8 1
5 0 CROSSFORD H/P J Moreira · J Size 1 4.3 1-3/4
6 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 18.0 2
7 0 EN POINTE Led early CP Z Purton · F C Lor 6 6.2 2-1/2
8 0 THE HULK K H Chan · C Fownes 2 39.0 4-1/4
9 0 VIVA HUNTER B/TT1 H Bentley · K L Man 8 10.0 5
10 0 SMOOTHIES B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 46.0 8-3/4
11 0 HORSESAIN BOLT B/TT R Maia · D J Whyte 10 39.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DR WINNING, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by HD, with NIMBLE NIMBUS second and GIFT OF LIFELINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite WIN WIN FIGHTER finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DR WINNING—2. NIMBLE NIMBUS+0.2L3. GIFT OF LIFELINE+0.5L4. WIN WIN FIGHTER+1L5. CROSSFORD+1.75L6. MALDIVES+2L7. EN POINTE+2.5L8. THE HULK+4.25L9. VIVA HUNTER+5L10. SMOOTHIES+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WIN WIN FIGHTER (20.6%) finished 4th — the winner DR WINNING was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WIN WIN FIGHTER 20.6% 4.85 4
2 0 CROSSFORD 17.8% 5.63 5
3 0 NIMBLE NIMBUS 17.2% 5.81 2
4 0 EN POINTE 15.4% 6.51 7
5 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 8.0% 12.44 3
6 0 VIVA HUNTER 5.4% 18.45 9
7 0 DR WINNING 4.4% 22.66 1
8 0 THE HULK 4.1% 24.35 8
9 0 MALDIVES 3.9% 25.80 6
10 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 2.2% 45.30 11
11 0 SMOOTHIES 1.0% 104.57 10
WIN WIN FIGHTERCROSSFORDNIMBLE NIMBUSEN POINTEGIFT OF LIFELINEVIVA HUNTERDR WINNING — wonTHE HULKMALDIVESHORSESAIN BOLTSMOOTHIES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 372.5

PLACE

5 31

8 18.5

11 77.5

QUINELLA

8,11 807

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 84.5

5,11 387

8,11 225

FORECAST

11,8 2,668

TIERCE

11,8,5 22,307

TRIO

5,8,11 2,490

FIRST 4

5,8,9,11 1,665

QUARTET

11,8,5,9 76,351

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 39.5

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

9,10,11/5,8,11 43,492

8TH DOUBLE

9/8 30.5

9/11 770

SIX UP

7/4/3/1/9/11 322,594

7,11/4,10/1,3/1,7/9,11/8,11 5,310

2 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

1/9/8 63

1/9/11 1,535