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Happy Valley · 2022-06-01 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PACKING AWARD, ridden by M F Poon and trained by L Ho, won by N, with PRIME MINISTER second and NEARLY FINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite NEARLY FINE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PACKING AWARD Closed strongly H 1.39.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · L Ho 8 10.0 N
2 1 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 10.0 N
3 7 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 3.0 2-1/2
4 8 THE ANOMALY Led early V H Bentley · K H Ting 9 15.0 2-1/2
5 9 READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly B/TT C Wong · C W Chang 6 12.0 2-3/4
6 5 CINQUANTE CINQ B2 C L Chau · T P Yung 3 22.0 3
7 2 RED MAJESTY B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 4.7 3-1/2
8 6 COPARTNER FIONN C Y Ho · W Y So 4 15.0 4-1/4
9 10 OSCAR GLORY CP A Badel · F C Lor 5 4.6 5-1/4
4 ESCAPE ROUTE K Teetan · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING AWARD2. PRIME MINISTER+0.05L3. NEARLY FINE+2.5L4. THE ANOMALY+2.5L5. READY PLAYER ONE+2.75L6. CINQUANTE CINQ+3L7. RED MAJESTY+3.5L8. COPARTNER FIONN+4.25L9. OSCAR GLORY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick NEARLY FINE (36.8%) finished 3rd — the winner PACKING AWARD was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 NEARLY FINE 36.8% 2.72 3
2 2 RED MAJESTY 13.0% 7.69 7
3 10 OSCAR GLORY 11.1% 9.00 9
4 3 PACKING AWARD 9.8% 10.20 1
5 6 COPARTNER FIONN 8.6% 11.67 8
6 9 READY PLAYER ONE 7.2% 13.88 5
7 8 THE ANOMALY 7.1% 14.14 4
8 1 PRIME MINISTER 3.4% 29.77 2
9 5 CINQUANTE CINQ 3.1% 32.38 6
NEARLY FINERED MAJESTYOSCAR GLORYPACKING AWARD — wonCOPARTNER FIONNREADY PLAYER ONETHE ANOMALYPRIME MINISTERCINQUANTE CINQ

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 102

PLACE

1 32.5

3 21.5

7 14.5

QUINELLA

1,3 535

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 154

1,7 64

3,7 56.5

FORECAST

3,1 863

TIERCE

3,1,7 3,146

TRIO

1,3,7 470

FIRST 4

1,3,7,8 1,090

QUARTET

3,1,7,8 28,547

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 55.5

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 48

4/3 391