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Happy Valley · 2022-06-01 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 E LEGEND Closed strongly 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 8 4.1 1
2 0 BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 7 4.1 1
3 0 LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly CP J Moreira · D J Hall 2 2.9 1-1/4
4 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP-/TT K C Leung · L Ho 6 7.7 2-1/4
5 0 BEST FOR YOU Led early B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 43.0 2-3/4
6 0 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 17.0 4
7 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT V Borges · W Y So 3 9.8 4-1/4
8 0 NEW ASIA ADVANCE B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 1 81.0 4-3/4
9 0 HAPPY GATHERING H Bentley · K L Man 4 34.0 5-1/4
10 0 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT SR/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 26.0 6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. E LEGEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with BLISSFUL STAR second and LUCKY MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite LUCKY MISSILE finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. E LEGEND—2. BLISSFUL STAR+1L3. LUCKY MISSILE+1.25L4. HAPPY DAILY+2.25L5. BEST FOR YOU+2.75L6. CITY LEGEND+4L7. FAITHFUL TRINITY+4.25L8. NEW ASIA ADVANCE+4.75L9. HAPPY GATHERING+5.25L10. COURAGEOUS KNIGHT+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LUCKY MISSILE (29.4%) finished 3rd — the winner E LEGEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY MISSILE 29.4% 3.40 3
2 0 E LEGEND 17.2% 5.83 1
3 0 BLISSFUL STAR 16.7% 5.98 2
4 0 HAPPY DAILY 15.1% 6.63 4
5 0 HAPPY GATHERING 6.0% 16.68 9
6 0 CITY LEGEND 5.2% 19.29 6
7 0 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 4.6% 21.57 10
8 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 2.7% 36.89 7
9 0 BEST FOR YOU 2.4% 41.59 5
10 0 NEW ASIA ADVANCE 0.7% 143.41 8
LUCKY MISSILEE LEGEND — wonBLISSFUL STARHAPPY DAILYHAPPY GATHERINGCITY LEGENDCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTFAITHFUL TRINITYBEST FOR YOUNEW ASIA ADVANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 41.5

PLACE

2 17

3 15.5

5 13

QUINELLA

2,3 89

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 36

2,5 29.5

3,5 24.5

FORECAST

2,3 187

TIERCE

2,3,5 453

TRIO

2,3,5 67

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 53

QUARTET

2,3,5,1 1,317

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/2 209.5

8/3 30.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 21

A3 —