Happy Valley · 2022-06-01 · 20:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SHADOW RUNNER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1/2, with HERO STAR second and VAMOS third. The 3.9 favourite LORIZ finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SHADOW RUNNER TT 1.09.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 11 | 31.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | VAMOS H Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 7 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | BINGO BINGO B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 8 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 5 | 6.8 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | WINNING ICEY TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 12 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 9.3 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | SALUTATION P-/SR1/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 9 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | LORIZ V2 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | CHARIZARD B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 10 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SUPER COMMANDER B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 1 | NOWITZKI TT C Wong · T P Yung | C Wong | T P Yung | 6 | 100.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LORIZ | 20.1% | 4.98 | 9 |
| 2 | 7 | SHADOW RUNNER | 18.4% | 5.44 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | VAMOS | 11.6% | 8.62 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | WINNING ICEY | 11.1% | 9.04 | 6 |
| 5 | 9 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 9.9% | 10.10 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | BINGO BINGO | 7.8% | 12.86 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | SALUTATION | 6.9% | 14.46 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | SUPER COMMANDER | 4.8% | 20.89 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | CHARIZARD | 3.5% | 28.67 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | HERO STAR | 3.4% | 29.46 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 2.0% | 50.96 | 7 |
| 12 | 1 | NOWITZKI | 0.6% | 157.11 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 50
PLACE
5 25
7 17.5
11 73.5
QUINELLA
7,11 808
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 49
5,11 258
7,11 209
FORECAST
7,11 1,200
TIERCE
7,11,5 8,016
TRIO
5,7,11 1,458
FIRST 4
2,5,7,11 2,403
QUARTET
7,11,5,2 54,038
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 22
3RD DOUBLE
2/7 193.5
2/11 233.5