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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 13:02

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1200m Course C+3 7 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FOREVER FRIENDS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with HAPPY WON second and LEAN HERO third. The 2.5 favourite HAPPY WON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.11.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FOREVER FRIENDS H/P 1.11.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 3 4.0 SH
2 2 HAPPY WON V/TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor 6 2.5 SH
3 7 LEAN HERO CP- L Currie · D A Hayes 2 19.0 N
4 3 JOYFUL CHAMPION B-/TT1 K C Leung · C W Chang 1 11.0 3/4
5 6 INSPIRING CITY H1 C Y Ho · D A Hayes 5 3.3 1-3/4
6 4 OUR PRECIOUS TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 4 10.0 2-1/2
7 5 SUPERB MOVE R Maia · C H Yip 7 30.0 2-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOREVER FRIENDS2. HAPPY WON+0.1L3. LEAN HERO+0.05L4. JOYFUL CHAMPION+0.75L5. INSPIRING CITY+1.75L6. OUR PRECIOUS+2.5L7. SUPERB MOVE+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FOREVER FRIENDS (39.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FOREVER FRIENDS 39.0% 2.56 1
2 2 HAPPY WON 30.6% 3.27 2
3 6 INSPIRING CITY 15.8% 6.32 5
4 4 OUR PRECIOUS 5.1% 19.47 6
5 3 JOYFUL CHAMPION 4.3% 23.46 4
6 5 SUPERB MOVE 2.8% 35.17 7
7 7 LEAN HERO 2.3% 43.40 3
FOREVER FRIENDS — wonHAPPY WONINSPIRING CITYOUR PRECIOUSJOYFUL CHAMPIONSUPERB MOVELEAN HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 40.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 11.5

7 45

QUINELLA

1,2 45.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 21.5

1,7 83.5

2,7 90

FORECAST

1,2 124

TIERCE

1,2,7 872

TRIO

1,2,7 153

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 264

QUARTET

1,2,7,3 4,535

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 15.5

A1

A3