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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. UNIVERSAL HORIZON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with GLENEALY GENERALS second and SHINING FORTUNE third. The 4.1 favourite SMART FOLKS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 1.09.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 9.7 N
2 8 GLENEALY GENERALS XB2 R Maia · C H Yip 8 18.0 N
3 10 SHINING FORTUNE L Currie · J Size 7 16.0 1/2
4 1 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 10 5.2 1-3/4
5 4 PRIME MORTAR TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 31.0 2
6 3 SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu 3 4.7 2-1/2
7 12 SMART FOLKS B L Hewitson · C W Chang 6 4.1 2-1/2
8 6 VALHALLA XB/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 5.7 3-1/2
9 11 LE PLUS VITE CP-/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 30.0 4-3/4
10 2 EASY SNIP CP-/TT- C L Chau · T P Yung 11 70.0 5
11 9 HO HO JUNIOR H- L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 121.0 6-1/4
12 7 DRAGON KINGDOM K C Leung · Y S Tsui 12 11.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNIVERSAL HORIZON2. GLENEALY GENERALS+0.05L3. SHINING FORTUNE+0.5L4. CALIFORNIA VANES+1.75L5. PRIME MORTAR+2L6. SWEET DIAMOND+2.5L7. SMART FOLKS+2.5L8. VALHALLA+3.5L9. LE PLUS VITE+4.75L10. EASY SNIP+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA VANES (22.3%) finished 4th — the winner UNIVERSAL HORIZON was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CALIFORNIA VANES 22.3% 4.49 4
2 3 SWEET DIAMOND 21.7% 4.61 6
3 6 VALHALLA 16.8% 5.97 8
4 7 DRAGON KINGDOM 10.1% 9.91 12
5 12 SMART FOLKS 7.5% 13.41 7
6 5 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 6.2% 16.16 1
7 10 SHINING FORTUNE 5.6% 17.81 3
8 8 GLENEALY GENERALS 4.4% 22.75 2
9 2 EASY SNIP 1.9% 53.30 10
10 4 PRIME MORTAR 1.5% 65.56 5
11 11 LE PLUS VITE 1.1% 88.15 9
12 9 HO HO JUNIOR 1.0% 101.36 11
CALIFORNIA VANESSWEET DIAMONDVALHALLADRAGON KINGDOMSMART FOLKSUNIVERSAL HORIZON — wonSHINING FORTUNEGLENEALY GENERALSEASY SNIPPRIME MORTARLE PLUS VITEHO HO JUNIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 97.5

PLACE

5 30.5

8 45.5

10 46

QUINELLA

5,8 928

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 269

5,10 309

8,10 410

FORECAST

5,8 1,987

TIERCE

5,8,10 27,045

TRIO

5,8,10 4,353

FIRST 4

1,5,8,10 5,029

QUARTET

5,8,10,1 135,838

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 33

A1

A2

4TH DOUBLE

4/5 856

4/8 221