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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY CHARGE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with SMART IDEA second and SPIRITED EXPRESS third. The 2.8 favourite REVE PARISIEN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT 1.09.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 4.9 3/4
2 6 SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 11 10.0 3/4
3 1 SPIRITED EXPRESS B M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 39.0 3/4
4 7 REVE PARISIEN Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 8 2.8 3-1/2
5 8 XPONENTIAL B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 11.0 4-1/4
6 4 HARMONY N BLESSED BO-/XB/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 10 37.0 5-1/4
7 2 KING LAND C L Chau · T P Yung 12 16.0 6
8 3 BRILLIANT WAY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 2 3.5 6-1/4
9 12 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 9 44.0 10
10 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC L Ferraris · K W Lui 6 60.0 10-3/4
11 5 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 5 27.0 20
12 10 SHADOW MISSION H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 132.0 28

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY CHARGE2. SMART IDEA+0.75L3. SPIRITED EXPRESS+0.75L4. REVE PARISIEN+3.5L5. XPONENTIAL+4.25L6. HARMONY N BLESSED+5.25L7. KING LAND+6L8. BRILLIANT WAY+6.25L9. MAGIC SUPREME+10L10. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick REVE PARISIEN (29.5%) finished 4th — the winner BEAUTY CHARGE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 REVE PARISIEN 29.5% 3.38 4
2 3 BRILLIANT WAY 19.1% 5.24 8
3 9 BEAUTY CHARGE 10.1% 9.87 1
4 6 SMART IDEA 9.1% 11.00 2
5 8 XPONENTIAL 8.9% 11.27 5
6 4 HARMONY N BLESSED 5.2% 19.38 6
7 5 TEAM SPIRIT 5.0% 19.88 11
8 2 KING LAND 4.0% 24.74 7
9 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.5% 28.51 10
10 12 MAGIC SUPREME 2.9% 34.91 9
11 1 SPIRITED EXPRESS 1.6% 64.46 3
12 10 SHADOW MISSION 1.1% 88.79 12
REVE PARISIENBRILLIANT WAYBEAUTY CHARGE — wonSMART IDEAXPONENTIALHARMONY N BLESSEDTEAM SPIRITKING LANDHIGH RISE SOLDIERMAGIC SUPREMESPIRITED EXPRESSSHADOW MISSION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 49

PLACE

1 82.5

6 26.5

9 18.5

QUINELLA

6,9 274

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 442.5

1,9 219

6,9 82.5

FORECAST

9,6 416

TIERCE

9,6,1 8,093

TRIO

1,6,9 2,822

FIRST 4

1,6,7,9 1,418

QUARTET

9,6,1,7 31,609

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 26.5

A3

A1

7TH DOUBLE

3/6 158

3/9 250