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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FLYING MIGHTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with STAR OF GLORY second and GO GO SIXTEEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite STAR OF GLORY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT 1.35.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 6 5.9 2
2 1 STAR OF GLORY Closed strongly B C L Chau · C W Chang 2 5.2 2
3 2 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 3 9.6 2-1/4
4 12 GRAND POWER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C W Chang 7 8.0 3-1/2
5 8 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO K C Leung · K L Man 4 15.0 4
6 11 RUN DES RUN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 13 34.0 4-1/4
7 10 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So 14 15.0 4-1/4
8 5 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 10 13.0 4-1/2
9 14 GORGEOUS INHERITOR Closed strongly V M Chadwick · C H Yip 12 22.0 7-1/2
10 6 EL VALIENTE TT J Moreira · C Fownes 1 5.2 7-3/4
11 13 PRIME STAR B/TT R Maia · A T Millard 5 9.9 8
12 3 SHANGHAI POWER Led early B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 42.0 8-1/2
13 9 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B M F Poon · C H Yip 11 52.0 13-3/4
14 7 FORTUNE MARBO B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 9 104.0 18-1/2
0 BOYS PARTY L Currie · A T Millard

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING MIGHTY2. STAR OF GLORY+2L3. GO GO SIXTEEN+2.25L4. GRAND POWER+3.5L5. CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO+4L6. RUN DES RUN+4.25L7. OWNERS' STAR+4.25L8. SUPERB DADDY+4.5L9. GORGEOUS INHERITOR+7.5L10. EL VALIENTE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EL VALIENTE (30.6%) finished 10th — the winner FLYING MIGHTY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 EL VALIENTE 30.6% 3.27 10
2 2 GO GO SIXTEEN 12.0% 8.30 3
3 1 STAR OF GLORY 9.4% 10.67 2
4 12 GRAND POWER 8.1% 12.42 4
5 4 FLYING MIGHTY 7.0% 14.36 1
6 10 OWNERS' STAR 6.7% 15.01 7
7 13 PRIME STAR 5.6% 17.72 11
8 11 RUN DES RUN 4.9% 20.38 6
9 3 SHANGHAI POWER 4.4% 22.58 12
10 8 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO 3.1% 32.19 5
11 14 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 2.7% 36.90 9
12 9 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 2.4% 41.63 13
13 5 SUPERB DADDY 2.1% 46.93 8
14 7 FORTUNE MARBO 1.0% 98.03 14
EL VALIENTEGO GO SIXTEENSTAR OF GLORYGRAND POWERFLYING MIGHTY — wonOWNERS' STARPRIME STARRUN DES RUNSHANGHAI POWERCIRCUIT SPIRITANTOGORGEOUS INHERITORHEAVENLY THOUGHTSUPERB DADDYFORTUNE MARBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 59

PLACE

1 18.5

2 27

4 25

QUINELLA

1,4 169

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 63

1,4 77

2,4 98

FORECAST

4,1 363

TIERCE

4,1,2 1,940

TRIO

1,2,4 388

FIRST 4

1,2,4,12 779

QUARTET

4,1,2,12 15,694

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,6/1,2,4 21,846

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE

6/1 61

6/4 371.5