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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CHICKEN DANCE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with PROUD DRAGON second and TURBO POWER third. The 4.8 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.10.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CHICKEN DANCE B 1.10.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 2 6.7 N
2 1 PROUD DRAGON B J Moreira · C Fownes 10 11.0 N
3 2 TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui 9 9.2 1-1/4
4 5 COUNTRY TREASURE B/H A Badel · J Size 8 6.2 2-1/4
5 9 LUCK STAR C L Chau · T P Yung 3 5.4 3-1/2
6 8 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 9.2 4
7 11 JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 4.8 4-1/4
8 12 MIRACLES B1 M L Yeung · K L Man 11 101.0 5-1/4
9 7 BULB PRINCE H1/TT V Borges · C H Yip 5 116.0 5-1/2
10 3 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 12 9.0 6
11 4 VIVA A LA H1/P1/TT1 M F Poon · L Ho 1 40.0 6-3/4
12 10 UNIVERSAL CROWN B L Currie · D J Whyte 4 20.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHICKEN DANCE2. PROUD DRAGON+0.05L3. TURBO POWER+1.25L4. COUNTRY TREASURE+2.25L5. LUCK STAR+3.5L6. JIANGXI STAMINA+4L7. JOYFUL GENIUS+4.25L8. MIRACLES+5.25L9. BULB PRINCE+5.5L10. ROYAL AGILITY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PROUD DRAGON (16.6%) finished 2nd — the winner CHICKEN DANCE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PROUD DRAGON 16.6% 6.02 2
2 3 ROYAL AGILITY 15.1% 6.63 10
3 11 JOYFUL GENIUS 14.8% 6.76 7
4 10 UNIVERSAL CROWN 10.9% 9.17 12
5 2 TURBO POWER 9.9% 10.06 3
6 6 CHICKEN DANCE 9.0% 11.16 1
7 5 COUNTRY TREASURE 7.8% 12.77 4
8 9 LUCK STAR 6.0% 16.55 5
9 8 JIANGXI STAMINA 5.2% 19.24 6
10 4 VIVA A LA 3.2% 31.49 11
11 7 BULB PRINCE 0.8% 122.01 9
12 12 MIRACLES 0.6% 160.87 8
PROUD DRAGONROYAL AGILITYJOYFUL GENIUSUNIVERSAL CROWNTURBO POWERCHICKEN DANCE — wonCOUNTRY TREASURELUCK STARJIANGXI STAMINAVIVA A LABULB PRINCEMIRACLES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 67.5

PLACE

1 33.5

2 28

6 21

QUINELLA

1,6 400.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 103.5

1,6 126.5

2,6 108

FORECAST

6,1 437

TIERCE

6,1,2 3,615

TRIO

1,2,6 701

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 638

QUARTET

6,1,2,5 16,220

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/1 77.5

11/6 192.5

3 PICK 1

A1 32.5

A3

A2