Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CHICKEN DANCE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with PROUD DRAGON second and TURBO POWER third. The 4.8 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHICKEN DANCE B 1.10.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 6.7 | N |
| 2 | 1 | PROUD DRAGON B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 10 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 9 | 9.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | COUNTRY TREASURE B/H A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 6.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | LUCK STAR C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 5.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 7 | 9.2 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 6 | 4.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | MIRACLES B1 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 11 | 101.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | BULB PRINCE H1/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 5 | 116.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | ROYAL AGILITY B/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 12 | 9.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | VIVA A LA H1/P1/TT1 M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 1 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B L Currie · D J Whyte | L Currie | D J Whyte | 4 | 20.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PROUD DRAGON | 16.6% | 6.02 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | ROYAL AGILITY | 15.1% | 6.63 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 14.8% | 6.76 | 7 |
| 4 | 10 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 10.9% | 9.17 | 12 |
| 5 | 2 | TURBO POWER | 9.9% | 10.06 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | CHICKEN DANCE | 9.0% | 11.16 | 1 |
| 7 | 5 | COUNTRY TREASURE | 7.8% | 12.77 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | LUCK STAR | 6.0% | 16.55 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | JIANGXI STAMINA | 5.2% | 19.24 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | VIVA A LA | 3.2% | 31.49 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | BULB PRINCE | 0.8% | 122.01 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | MIRACLES | 0.6% | 160.87 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 67.5
PLACE
1 33.5
2 28
6 21
QUINELLA
1,6 400.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 103.5
1,6 126.5
2,6 108
FORECAST
6,1 437
TIERCE
6,1,2 3,615
TRIO
1,2,6 701
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 638
QUARTET
6,1,2,5 16,220
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
11/1 77.5
11/6 192.5
3 PICK 1
A1 32.5
A3 —
A2 —