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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MOERAKI, ridden by L Currie and trained by C W Chang, won by HD, with QUADRUPLE DOUBLE second and STAND UP third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 MOERAKI B/TT 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · C W Chang 2 3.3 HD
2 1 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT K H Chan · D J Hall 3 7.4 HD
3 5 STAND UP M F Poon · F C Lor 1 53.0 1-3/4
4 12 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 9 12.0 3-1/4
5 6 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 6 5.4 3-3/4
6 10 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 40.0 3-3/4
7 7 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 7 9.4 4
8 3 HAPPY TANGO B J Moreira · Y S Tsui 10 8.2 5
9 9 WISDOM PATCH PC/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 4 8.6 7-1/4
10 2 MIRACLE VICTORY TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 12 24.0 10-1/2
11 4 LOVE ME MORE CP/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 13.0 11-1/2
12 8 THIS IS GUTS B-/H1/TT V Borges · C H Yip 11 129.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MOERAKI2. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+0.2L3. STAND UP+1.75L4. TELECOM MISSILE+3.25L5. LADY FIRST+3.75L6. COLOURFUL PRINCE+3.75L7. LUCKY RUBY+4L8. HAPPY TANGO+5L9. WISDOM PATCH+7.25L10. MIRACLE VICTORY+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WISDOM PATCH (14.9%) finished 9th — the winner MOERAKI was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 WISDOM PATCH 14.9% 6.71 9
2 6 LADY FIRST 14.3% 7.00 5
3 11 MOERAKI 13.3% 7.54 1
4 3 HAPPY TANGO 11.5% 8.66 8
5 12 TELECOM MISSILE 9.8% 10.19 4
6 4 LOVE ME MORE 8.3% 12.09 11
7 2 MIRACLE VICTORY 6.5% 15.31 10
8 1 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 6.5% 15.47 2
9 7 LUCKY RUBY 6.1% 16.39 7
10 10 COLOURFUL PRINCE 3.6% 27.53 6
11 5 STAND UP 3.2% 31.01 3
12 8 THIS IS GUTS 2.0% 50.59 12
WISDOM PATCHLADY FIRSTMOERAKI — wonHAPPY TANGOTELECOM MISSILELOVE ME MOREMIRACLE VICTORYQUADRUPLE DOUBLELUCKY RUBYCOLOURFUL PRINCESTAND UPTHIS IS GUTS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 33

PLACE

1 22

5 126

11 13.5

QUINELLA

1,11 156.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 674.5

1,11 56

5,11 309

FORECAST

11,1 236

TIERCE

11,1,5 8,517

TRIO

1,5,11 2,124

FIRST 4

1,5,11,12 5,045

QUARTET

11,1,5,12 78,226

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 40

1/11 182.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 20.5

A2