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Sha Tin · 2022-07-10 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. JOLLY RULER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with SUPER WIN DRAGON second and SPONTANEOUS third. The 6.7 favourite CALL ME TEDDY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 JOLLY RULER 1.08.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu 6 8.7 HD
2 11 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 12 6.9 HD
3 12 SPONTANEOUS B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 2 9.8 3/4
4 5 MAN STAR V M L Yeung · K H Ting 7 40.0 3
5 8 CALL ME TEDDY TT Z Purton · C W Chang 10 6.7 4
6 3 LIGHTNING BOLT A Badel · C S Shum 4 6.7 4-1/4
7 2 ELON E/P J Moreira · J Size 8 7.3 4-1/2
7 6 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 9 10.0 4-1/2
9 4 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 1 12.0 5
10 1 LUCKY FUN M F Poon · L Ho 11 20.0 6
11 9 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 5 10.0 6
12 7 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 13.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOLLY RULER2. SUPER WIN DRAGON+0.2L3. SPONTANEOUS+0.75L4. MAN STAR+3L5. CALL ME TEDDY+4L6. LIGHTNING BOLT+4.25L7. ELON+4.5L7. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+4.5L9. CALIFORNIA CONCORD+5L10. LUCKY FUN+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHTNING BOLT (14.9%) finished 6th — the winner JOLLY RULER was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LIGHTNING BOLT 14.9% 6.71 6
2 7 VALIANT ELEGANCE 11.7% 8.52 12
3 11 SUPER WIN DRAGON 11.6% 8.63 2
4 9 SUPER AXIOM 11.2% 8.90 11
5 12 SPONTANEOUS 10.2% 9.76 3
6 8 CALL ME TEDDY 8.8% 11.31 5
7 2 ELON 8.7% 11.46 7
8 6 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 6.2% 16.24 7
9 4 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 5.6% 17.94 9
10 1 LUCKY FUN 5.0% 20.11 10
11 10 JOLLY RULER 4.0% 24.93 1
12 5 MAN STAR 2.0% 49.80 4
LIGHTNING BOLTVALIANT ELEGANCESUPER WIN DRAGONSUPER AXIOMSPONTANEOUSCALL ME TEDDYELONEVERYONE'S VICTORYCALIFORNIA CONCORDLUCKY FUNJOLLY RULER — wonMAN STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 87

PLACE

10 34.5

11 27

12 33

QUINELLA

10,11 471

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 165.5

10,12 192

11,12 112.5

FORECAST

10,11 987

TIERCE

10,11,12 6,145

TRIO

10,11,12 1,546

FIRST 4

5,10,11,12 8,789

QUARTET

10,11,12,5 167,062

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 27.5

A3

8TH DOUBLE

9/10 185.5

9/11 104.5