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Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 19:18

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ALL IS READY Closed strongly B 1.41.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P F Yiu 5 36.0 1/2
2 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · C H Yip 1 5.5 1/2
3 0 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 9 14.0 3/4
4 0 HANDSOME VEGGIE Led early H- Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 6.9 1-1/2
5 0 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 4.9 1-3/4
6 0 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 6 27.0 2-3/4
7 0 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 8 6.6 3-1/2
8 0 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly TT- C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 8.2 4
9 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 9.5 4-1/2
10 0 BELL OF VICTORY B- L Currie · C W Chang 4 28.0 5-3/4
11 0 GO GO SIXTEEN B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 2 9.1 9-1/2
12 0 ENCORE TT A Badel · C S Shum 12 35.0 11

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ALL IS READY, ridden by V Borges and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FLASH FAMOUS second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite SMILING FACE finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL IS READY—2. FLASH FAMOUS+0.5L3. MEDIC ELITE+0.75L4. HANDSOME VEGGIE+1.5L5. SMILING FACE+1.75L6. SURE WIN WIN+2.75L7. JOLLY HONOUR+3.5L8. DAILY BEAUTY+4L9. FAITHFUL TRINITY+4.5L10. BELL OF VICTORY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLASH FAMOUS (18.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ALL IS READY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLASH FAMOUS 18.8% 5.32 2
2 0 SMILING FACE 17.5% 5.71 5
3 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 13.9% 7.17 11
4 0 JOLLY HONOUR 8.6% 11.66 7
5 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 7.8% 12.81 9
6 0 HANDSOME VEGGIE 7.3% 13.70 4
7 0 DAILY BEAUTY 6.6% 15.10 8
8 0 SURE WIN WIN 6.3% 15.82 6
9 0 BELL OF VICTORY 3.7% 27.35 10
10 0 MEDIC ELITE 3.5% 28.80 3
11 0 ALL IS READY 3.4% 29.09 1
12 0 ENCORE 2.5% 39.69 12
FLASH FAMOUSSMILING FACEGO GO SIXTEENJOLLY HONOURFAITHFUL TRINITYHANDSOME VEGGIEDAILY BEAUTYSURE WIN WINBELL OF VICTORYMEDIC ELITEALL IS READY — wonENCORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 361

PLACE

5 107

8 19

12 41

QUINELLA

5,8 1,111

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 335

5,12 782.5

8,12 135.5

FORECAST

5,8 3,626

TIERCE

5,8,12 43,791

TRIO

5,8,12 4,459

FIRST 4

5,6,8,12 11,472

QUARTET

5,8,12,6 412,857

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 21.5

A1 —