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Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 19:18

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ALL IS READY, ridden by V Borges and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FLASH FAMOUS second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite SMILING FACE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.41.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ALL IS READY Closed strongly B 1.41.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P F Yiu 5 36.0 1/2
2 8 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · C H Yip 1 5.5 1/2
3 12 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 9 14.0 3/4
4 6 HANDSOME VEGGIE Led early H- Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 6.9 1-1/2
5 11 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 4.9 1-3/4
6 9 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 6 27.0 2-3/4
7 4 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 8 6.6 3-1/2
8 10 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly TT- C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 8.2 4
9 7 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 9.5 4-1/2
10 1 BELL OF VICTORY B- L Currie · C W Chang 4 28.0 5-3/4
11 3 GO GO SIXTEEN B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 2 9.1 9-1/2
12 2 ENCORE TT A Badel · C S Shum 12 35.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL IS READY2. FLASH FAMOUS+0.5L3. MEDIC ELITE+0.75L4. HANDSOME VEGGIE+1.5L5. SMILING FACE+1.75L6. SURE WIN WIN+2.75L7. JOLLY HONOUR+3.5L8. DAILY BEAUTY+4L9. FAITHFUL TRINITY+4.5L10. BELL OF VICTORY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLASH FAMOUS (18.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ALL IS READY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 FLASH FAMOUS 18.8% 5.32 2
2 11 SMILING FACE 17.5% 5.71 5
3 3 GO GO SIXTEEN 13.9% 7.17 11
4 4 JOLLY HONOUR 8.6% 11.66 7
5 7 FAITHFUL TRINITY 7.8% 12.81 9
6 6 HANDSOME VEGGIE 7.3% 13.70 4
7 10 DAILY BEAUTY 6.6% 15.10 8
8 9 SURE WIN WIN 6.3% 15.82 6
9 1 BELL OF VICTORY 3.7% 27.35 10
10 12 MEDIC ELITE 3.5% 28.80 3
11 5 ALL IS READY 3.4% 29.09 1
12 2 ENCORE 2.5% 39.69 12
FLASH FAMOUSSMILING FACEGO GO SIXTEENJOLLY HONOURFAITHFUL TRINITYHANDSOME VEGGIEDAILY BEAUTYSURE WIN WINBELL OF VICTORYMEDIC ELITEALL IS READY — wonENCORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 361

PLACE

5 107

8 19

12 41

QUINELLA

5,8 1,111

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 335

5,12 782.5

8,12 135.5

FORECAST

5,8 3,626

TIERCE

5,8,12 43,791

TRIO

5,8,12 4,459

FIRST 4

5,6,8,12 11,472

QUARTET

5,8,12,6 412,857

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 21.5

A2