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Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 21:46

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. YO BEAUTY, ridden by A Badel and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with EXCELLENT PEERS second and TRADER third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT 1.09.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · A S Cruz 1 2.6 1/2
2 4 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 11.0 1/2
3 9 TRADER CP/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 4 8.0 3/4
4 1 NICCONI COUNTY TT K H Chan · C Fownes 3 5.4 1-1/2
5 3 NAMJONG SINGS B H Bentley · C S Shum 2 13.0 1-3/4
6 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 15.0 2
7 6 SUPER WINNER TT Z Purton · C H Yip 5 5.3 2-3/4
8 7 EQUILIBRIUM TURBO CP/H L Hewitson · R Gibson 7 17.0 4-1/4
9 2 ELON E/P L Currie · J Size 10 30.0 6
10 10 MODEST GENTLEMAN H/V1/TT M F Poon · L Ho 9 51.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YO BEAUTY2. EXCELLENT PEERS+0.5L3. TRADER+0.75L4. NICCONI COUNTY+1.5L5. NAMJONG SINGS+1.75L6. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+2L7. SUPER WINNER+2.75L8. EQUILIBRIUM TURBO+4.25L9. ELON+6L10. MODEST GENTLEMAN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YO BEAUTY (29.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 YO BEAUTY 29.0% 3.44 1
2 4 EXCELLENT PEERS 23.5% 4.26 2
3 1 NICCONI COUNTY 13.2% 7.55 4
4 6 SUPER WINNER 9.1% 10.97 7
5 9 TRADER 6.4% 15.74 3
6 3 NAMJONG SINGS 5.8% 17.13 5
7 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 4.0% 25.06 6
8 2 ELON 3.9% 25.48 9
9 7 EQUILIBRIUM TURBO 3.9% 25.51 8
10 10 MODEST GENTLEMAN 1.1% 91.41 10
YO BEAUTY — wonEXCELLENT PEERSNICCONI COUNTYSUPER WINNERTRADERNAMJONG SINGSHIGH RISE SOLDIERELONEQUILIBRIUM TURBOMODEST GENTLEMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 26

PLACE

4 31.5

5 12.5

9 25.5

QUINELLA

4,5 134.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 55.5

4,9 130.5

5,9 41

FORECAST

5,4 255

TIERCE

5,4,9 1,436

TRIO

4,5,9 329

FIRST 4

1,4,5,9 344

QUARTET

5,4,9,1 6,603

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,7/4,5,9 11,646

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE

2/4 72.5

2/5 141

TRIPLE TRIO

2,8,9/2,3,7/4,5,9 697,745

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,8,9/2,3,7/Any Combination 3,686