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Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 22:18

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING ICEY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-3/4, with STORMTROUPER second and IGNITING third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 WINNING ICEY TT 1.09.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes 3 3.4 1-3/4
2 6 STORMTROUPER E/TT R Maia · C H Yip 2 11.0 1-3/4
3 2 IGNITING B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 6 7.7 2
4 8 FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 8.8 2-3/4
5 10 ENCHANTING IBIS H Bentley · A T Millard 9 10.0 3
6 4 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 14.0 3-1/4
7 3 RED DESERT B A Badel · J Size 10 43.0 3-3/4
8 1 BEAUTY GLORY H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 3.4 3-3/4
9 7 SUPER EAGLE L Currie · D A Hayes 4 23.0 6-3/4
10 5 WINE AND WINE B/TT C Wong · T P Yung 5 16.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING ICEY2. STORMTROUPER+1.75L3. IGNITING+2L4. FLAMING PASSION+2.75L5. ENCHANTING IBIS+3L6. OUR LUCKY GLORY+3.25L7. RED DESERT+3.75L8. BEAUTY GLORY+3.75L9. SUPER EAGLE+6.75L10. WINE AND WINE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY GLORY (21.8%) finished 8th — the winner WINNING ICEY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY GLORY 21.8% 4.59 8
2 8 FLAMING PASSION 20.9% 4.79 4
3 9 WINNING ICEY 14.9% 6.71 1
4 4 OUR LUCKY GLORY 12.1% 8.26 6
5 10 ENCHANTING IBIS 7.5% 13.42 5
6 2 IGNITING 6.1% 16.50 3
7 6 STORMTROUPER 5.8% 17.23 2
8 5 WINE AND WINE 4.8% 20.73 10
9 3 RED DESERT 3.1% 32.15 7
10 7 SUPER EAGLE 3.1% 32.57 9
BEAUTY GLORYFLAMING PASSIONWINNING ICEY — wonOUR LUCKY GLORYENCHANTING IBISIGNITINGSTORMTROUPERWINE AND WINERED DESERTSUPER EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 34

PLACE

2 23

6 25

9 13.5

QUINELLA

6,9 200.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 109.5

2,9 41

6,9 69

FORECAST

9,6 360

TIERCE

9,6,2 1,897

TRIO

2,6,9 369

FIRST 4

2,6,8,9 497

QUARTET

9,6,2,8 9,116

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17

A2

A3

6TH DOUBLE

5/6 66.5

5/9 140