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Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 19:46

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 10 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY DIAMOND, ridden by L Currie and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with TAILOR MADE second and KOWLOON GREAT third. The winner led throughout. The 3.1 favourite TAILOR MADE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 LUCKY DIAMOND Wire to wire B/TT 1.49.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · K H Ting 10 15.0 1/2
2 8 TAILOR MADE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 1 3.1 1/2
3 4 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 14.0 2-1/4
4 6 VINCY Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip 7 18.0 2-3/4
5 7 SUPER BUDDY B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 4 18.0 3-1/2
6 10 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly C Wong · C H Yip 8 12.0 4-1/4
7 9 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 9.7 5
8 3 BORN THE SAME DAY H/P Z Purton · P C Ng 2 4.9 5-1/4
9 5 SUPER HONG KONG B/TT A Badel · A T Millard 3 5.3 6
10 1 SURREALISM B L Ferraris · R Gibson 9 13.0 16-1/4
11 VICTORIOUS SEEKER A Hamelin · P C Ng

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY DIAMOND2. TAILOR MADE+0.5L3. KOWLOON GREAT+2.25L4. VINCY+2.75L5. SUPER BUDDY+3.5L6. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+4.25L7. WONDER YEARS+5L8. BORN THE SAME DAY+5.25L9. SUPER HONG KONG+6L10. SURREALISM+16.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WONDER YEARS (24.5%) finished 7th — the winner LUCKY DIAMOND was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 WONDER YEARS 24.5% 4.08 7
2 8 TAILOR MADE 19.8% 5.06 2
3 5 SUPER HONG KONG 9.6% 10.46 9
4 1 SURREALISM 9.0% 11.10 10
5 2 LUCKY DIAMOND 8.7% 11.50 1
6 3 BORN THE SAME DAY 7.8% 12.74 8
7 6 VINCY 6.4% 15.61 4
8 10 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 5.8% 17.14 6
9 7 SUPER BUDDY 4.6% 21.56 5
10 4 KOWLOON GREAT 3.8% 26.58 3
WONDER YEARSTAILOR MADESUPER HONG KONGSURREALISMLUCKY DIAMOND — wonBORN THE SAME DAYVINCYMURRAY'S PARTNERSSUPER BUDDYKOWLOON GREAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 155

PLACE

2 37.5

4 40

8 15

QUINELLA

2,8 252.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 306

2,8 94.5

4,8 69

FORECAST

2,8 641

TIERCE

2,8,4 10,945

TRIO

2,4,8 792

FIRST 4

2,4,6,8 2,913

QUARTET

2,8,4,6 73,762

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/2 5,049

5/8 364

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 29

A1