Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 20:46
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERCULES, ridden by A Badel and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with EXUBERANT second and HAPPY TANGO third. The 4.0 favourite COMPASSION SUPER finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HERCULES B/TT 1.10.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 4 | 5.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | EXUBERANT B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 9.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | HAPPY TANGO B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 2 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 9.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | BIRDSVILLE SR/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 12 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | SMILING CITY V R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 9 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | LORIZ K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | BLUSTITCH TT L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 3 | 28.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | COMPASSION SUPER Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 4.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 11.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 11 | 29.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | COUNTRY TREASURE H/P L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 6 | 22.0 | 17-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | COMPASSION SUPER | 23.5% | 4.26 | 9 |
| 2 | 10 | LORIZ | 18.2% | 5.50 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | HERCULES | 13.1% | 7.65 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 12.0% | 8.33 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 6.7% | 14.86 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | COUNTRY TREASURE | 6.1% | 16.43 | 12 |
| 7 | 2 | EXUBERANT | 5.1% | 19.68 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | SMILING CITY | 5.1% | 19.77 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | HAPPY TANGO | 3.5% | 28.44 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | BIRDSVILLE | 2.8% | 36.06 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | WILD WEST WING | 2.1% | 48.13 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | BLUSTITCH | 2.0% | 50.47 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 53
PLACE
2 25.5
8 17.5
9 42
QUINELLA
2,8 202.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 69.5
2,9 163
8,9 126
FORECAST
8,2 363
TIERCE
8,2,9 5,068
TRIO
2,8,9 748
FIRST 4
2,3,8,9 1,557
QUARTET
8,2,9,3 35,064
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,10/2,8,9 98,416
3 PICK 1
A1 33.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/2 170
3/8 641.5