Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 21:16
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT WAKING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with HERO STAR second and MOMENTUM GALAXY third. The 3.4 favourite HERO STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GALLANT WAKING XB 1.10.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 4.2 | HD |
| 2 | 7 | HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 1 | 3.4 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 2 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | SPICY GRILL B/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 5 | 5.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | ISLAND SHINE B-/TT2 A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 8 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SHINING FORTUNE V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 11 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | SMART LEADER B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 21.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 31.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | COMMON ROOM TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 9 | 43.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | SIX BEST FRIENDS B1/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 4 | 26.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | DRAGON KINGDOM K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 0 | KOKUSHI MUSOU K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HERO STAR | 27.3% | 3.66 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | GALLANT WAKING | 11.5% | 8.70 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | SHINING FORTUNE | 10.0% | 9.97 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | SPICY GRILL | 9.7% | 10.30 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | ISLAND SHINE | 7.2% | 13.96 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | SMART LEADER | 7.0% | 14.24 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 7.0% | 14.31 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 6.8% | 14.68 | 12 |
| 9 | 11 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 5.3% | 18.84 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 3.5% | 28.97 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | SIX BEST FRIENDS | 2.8% | 36.06 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | COMMON ROOM | 2.0% | 50.82 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 42
PLACE
2 15.5
3 57.5
7 15
QUINELLA
2,7 73
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 137.5
2,7 32
3,7 115
FORECAST
2,7 151
TIERCE
2,7,3 1,935
TRIO
2,3,7 434
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 368
QUARTET
2,7,3,4 7,313
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 19
4TH DOUBLE
8/2 212.5
8/7 35