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Happy Valley · 2022-09-28 · 21:16

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT WAKING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with HERO STAR second and MOMENTUM GALAXY third. The 3.4 favourite HERO STAR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GALLANT WAKING XB 1.10.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 4.2 HD
2 7 HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man 1 3.4 HD
3 3 MOMENTUM GALAXY B H Bentley · K H Ting 2 20.0 3
4 4 SPICY GRILL B/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 5 5.0 3-1/2
5 5 ISLAND SHINE B-/TT2 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 8 15.0 3-1/2
6 9 SHINING FORTUNE V Borges · J Size 11 14.0 4-3/4
7 1 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 12.0 4-3/4
8 11 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 21.0 5-1/4
9 10 AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 7 31.0 5-1/2
10 12 COMMON ROOM TT A Badel · C S Shum 9 43.0 5-3/4
11 6 SIX BEST FRIENDS B1/TT H W Lai · K L Man 4 26.0 6-1/2
12 8 DRAGON KINGDOM K C Leung · Y S Tsui 3 12.0 7-1/2
0 KOKUSHI MUSOU K H Chan · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT WAKING2. HERO STAR+0.2L3. MOMENTUM GALAXY+3L4. SPICY GRILL+3.5L5. ISLAND SHINE+3.5L6. SHINING FORTUNE+4.75L7. SMART LEADER+4.75L8. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+5.25L9. AMBITIOUS HEART+5.5L10. COMMON ROOM+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HERO STAR (27.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GALLANT WAKING was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 HERO STAR 27.3% 3.66 2
2 2 GALLANT WAKING 11.5% 8.70 1
3 9 SHINING FORTUNE 10.0% 9.97 6
4 4 SPICY GRILL 9.7% 10.30 4
5 5 ISLAND SHINE 7.2% 13.96 5
6 1 SMART LEADER 7.0% 14.24 7
7 3 MOMENTUM GALAXY 7.0% 14.31 3
8 8 DRAGON KINGDOM 6.8% 14.68 12
9 11 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 5.3% 18.84 8
10 10 AMBITIOUS HEART 3.5% 28.97 9
11 6 SIX BEST FRIENDS 2.8% 36.06 11
12 12 COMMON ROOM 2.0% 50.82 10
HERO STARGALLANT WAKING — wonSHINING FORTUNESPICY GRILLISLAND SHINESMART LEADERMOMENTUM GALAXYDRAGON KINGDOMTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDAMBITIOUS HEARTSIX BEST FRIENDSCOMMON ROOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 42

PLACE

2 15.5

3 57.5

7 15

QUINELLA

2,7 73

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 137.5

2,7 32

3,7 115

FORECAST

2,7 151

TIERCE

2,7,3 1,935

TRIO

2,3,7 434

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 368

QUARTET

2,7,3,4 7,313

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19

4TH DOUBLE

8/2 212.5

8/7 35