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Happy Valley · 2022-11-23 · 20:16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED BRICK FIGHTER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with HAPPY ANGEL second and LUCKY GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SPARKY STAR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B 1.40.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 3 6.4 1
2 5 HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly B C L Chau · P C Ng 2 8.0 1
3 1 LUCKY GOLD B C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 11.0 2
4 3 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung 5 3.8 2-1/4
5 6 FIRE BALL H Bentley · C H Yip 7 20.0 3
6 2 BIG TWO Closed strongly H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 16.0 3-1/4
7 12 CONCERTO Closed strongly TT V Borges · K H Ting 11 22.0 4-1/4
8 10 VUKAN B/XB/TT R Maia · J Richards 4 19.0 4-1/4
9 7 V CHEVALIERS B/TT J McNeil · K L Man 1 25.0 4-3/4
10 8 BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP/TT Y L Chung · F C Lor 12 4.2 7-1/4
11 11 SEATOSKY CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 19.0 8-1/4
9 SMOOTHIES B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 19.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED BRICK FIGHTER2. HAPPY ANGEL+1L3. LUCKY GOLD+2L4. SPARKY STAR+2.25L5. FIRE BALL+3L6. BIG TWO+3.25L7. CONCERTO+4.25L8. VUKAN+4.25L9. V CHEVALIERS+4.75L10. BAEBAE TSOI+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SPARKY STAR (20.2%) finished 4th — the winner RED BRICK FIGHTER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SPARKY STAR 20.2% 4.95 4
2 5 HAPPY ANGEL 14.4% 6.95 2
3 8 BAEBAE TSOI 11.9% 8.43 10
4 4 RED BRICK FIGHTER 9.1% 10.94 1
5 1 LUCKY GOLD 9.1% 10.95 3
6 2 BIG TWO 8.9% 11.21 6
7 10 VUKAN 8.3% 12.03 8
8 6 FIRE BALL 8.0% 12.49 5
9 12 CONCERTO 4.1% 24.23 7
10 11 SEATOSKY 3.7% 26.73 11
11 7 V CHEVALIERS 2.2% 45.81 9
SPARKY STARHAPPY ANGELBAEBAE TSOIRED BRICK FIGHTER — wonLUCKY GOLDBIG TWOVUKANFIRE BALLCONCERTOSEATOSKYV CHEVALIERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 64

PLACE

1 42.5

4 20.5

5 27.5

QUINELLA

4,5 248

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 143.5

1,5 174

4,5 88.5

FORECAST

4,5 533

TIERCE

4,5,1 7,241

TRIO

1,4,5 1,174

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 882

QUARTET

4,5,1,3 24,872

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/4 2,742.5

3/5 643.5

3 PICK 1

A1 24

A3

A2