Happy Valley · 2022-11-23 · 20:46
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY TYCOON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with YO BEAUTY second and IGNITING third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BEAUTY TYCOON H/P 1.09.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 2.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | IGNITING B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 9 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | NICCONI COUNTY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | SERGEANT PEPPER J McNeil · Y S Tsui | J McNeil | Y S Tsui | 6 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | CHARMANDER B/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 5 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | DRAGON ADMIRAL H/XB K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 2 | 44.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | CLASSIC POSH L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 4 | 35.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | STRADALE B/XB/TT S De Sousa · J Richards | S De Sousa | J Richards | 8 | 60.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BEAUTY TYCOON | 26.7% | 3.74 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | YO BEAUTY | 26.5% | 3.77 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 15.5% | 6.47 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 8.2% | 12.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | IGNITING | 6.0% | 16.61 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | CHARMANDER | 4.9% | 20.60 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | NICCONI COUNTY | 4.5% | 21.98 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | CLASSIC POSH | 3.4% | 29.46 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | STRADALE | 3.3% | 30.60 | 10 |
| 10 | 4 | DRAGON ADMIRAL | 1.1% | 94.37 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 22.5
PLACE
2 25.5
3 11
5 12
QUINELLA
3,5 27.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 35
2,5 49
3,5 16.5
FORECAST
5,3 63
TIERCE
5,3,2 280
TRIO
2,3,5 82
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 109
QUARTET
5,3,2,1 978
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,5/2,3,5 16,194
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 12
3RD DOUBLE
4/3 20
4/5 170.5